Thursday, December 4, 2014

LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL !! 39 CENT GASOLINE, a cautionary tale (do the math)

   39 cent Gasoline, man that is GREAT !  Ain't it ??

It was sad at today's Update Webinar to hear these esteemed TA market guys falling all over themselves, whistling past the graveyard so they didn't have to call what the markets were doing as Rolling over in to a DownTrend.
OMG, did I let that Awful world DOWNTREND see daylight.......? Oh NO ! Sad, these guys are SO mainstream paradigm that you could hear them tremble. Damn shame, another place, another time, you'd pub up with them for a beer. Now however they are just apologists trying to save their salaries. Investors don't buy their services when they are not outright bullish. I mean I cannot even get educated astute business people to execute a Sell STOP after their Limit gets violated, that is how brain-washed people are.

Anything your reading indicate that we are on the verge of an all-out Bull market ? Ah yes Martin Armstrong, DJIA 40,000, yes I read him today. I hold my friends close, my enemies closer. Possible, indeed for the picture how he paints it. We have Facebook with a 70 PE, so that means at 40,000 DJ, keeping with the Dow Jones, FB will have a PE of 175. OH I am OK with that !! NOT !!

I mean won't the Good Times Be Rollin'? Everyone riding their Kawasaki ?

At this current rate of descent, Gasoline will be 39 cent a Gallon, right. No problem. Your mortgage will have reset by then, twice, the second pushed it to 6%, that great loan for $450,00 1 % Interest Teaser to start, by Qwickken. So now before Reset #1, you had put $50K down, and your payment was manageable at U$D 1040 @ mo. Upon Reset #1, they maxxed it to the 2% climb and you were @ 3%. Lucky for you, Reset # 1 only took you to $1535 @ mo. Of course you had to requalify to make sure you didnt get slapped with extra basis points for a change in your credit status. Whoo that was close. Now your eldest daughter, had to take full time work to add to the 2 incomes already paying your mortgage. Before, the taxes were almost as much as the mortgage @ 950 a month. By now they were 1200 a mo. The killer was Reset #2. Four years later your daughter was still at home working, working days and playing her band nites, when Reset #2 hit you whacking you with enuf basis points to drive the rate to 6%, and the base amount of the mortgage monthly to $2260.
Add in that taxes in at that time were only $1340, and it was $3500 a mo, Mortgage payment and taxes, $3500 a mo, and the insurance didn't go up, only 140 @ mo, since you were now finally in the black, the house value being 460,000 and you were down to owning only $430,000. Damn your doing good 'hoss, you have been making just under a hundred grand family income, spending just under that magic 35% on housing, not including the utilities which seemed to go up all by themselves. That was the good news. Valued work partner that you are, all you need is a 30% raise to stay below 33% of family income for housing expense. Due to de-flation, there has been no raises at work for 3 yrs. MAGIC, your housing expense BEFORE maintenance is now 44%, which is gonna ad a min of 10%. 39 cent Gasoline? WOW! Your housing expense is over half your income!

Better than that, the DJ just topped 38,000, and your mutual funds are up 8%. All 15K of them. The other half is in the Protected US Treasury fund, paying 3% in E style bonds. You doing good Boss. You still got a job. Ya know the jobless rate is now under 5%, but as tight as the job market is for Admin professionals, you cant get a bite on your resume ? Seems funny everything is sooo good, why the hell does it feel so BAD ?
We all knew when we got our degrees, that Easy Street was up there at
$50,000 a year. Then they moved the street. You and your wife had one helluva work ethic. Raised two sons, and a daughter, good kids made something of themselves. Jack, US Army served 3 tours in two 'Stans, has two kids, struggles at times with some crap he got overseas. Teresa his wife works full time to keep it together for them. Jack tried to tell Billy not to go Army so he went SEALS, and we haven't heard from him since last Christmas. Hope he is OK. Annie, a really ambitious girl, has both music and accounting, works locally and has her own band. Kid is a fireball just like her mom. Damn, gasoline is 39 cents a gallon, the Dow is 38,000, and my new pickup just cost me short of 50K with the promo credits, 65K with the interest when I pay it off. With the new truck and other fixed expenses we are spending 125% of our income and I am not even buying Starbucks. What is wrong ? I know I should be paying down my consumer debt at 15% of income a year but instead it's going up 27K last year. Counting the cars, truck, credit cards and lines of credit I am in debt to 155% of my annual BEFORE Tax income. What is wrong ? I mean gas is only 39 cents a gallon?

Am I upset ? You bet your donkey / burro I am. Used to be we'd go out for dinner at a family resturant, say Chili's for $100 including tip for the three of us.
That was once a week. Now maybe once a month. Used to stop at Timmies with the gang after church for lunch. Now its coffee. ONLY.
Gotta hand it to those two girls, Julie my darlin wife and her double Annie.
Since they took over the finances I never seen so many credit card companies baffled how to get their hooks into us. I can't believe they can double shuffle those guys so bad the most they can get out of us 2 payments every 3 or 4 months. We could make only minimum payments so we'd take 170 years to pay it off, to what end. They even conned one Credit Co to give free credit life for me, for 2 yrs. They guy the could not scam served me with papers for State Claims court for our boat that was repossessed 2 yrs ago. Now we got a $45,000 lien against the house, which I regret. I regret not having the boat for our times together, but again the boys are out of the house.......I know its gonna be tough to pay it off, might just wait till I sell out here if I can. I think I am getting tired of this. I'd sure like the get the hell off this credit merry-go-round and give my family a little peace and security, and NO, Annie is not going into the Air Force. Should be some better jobs for her out there, can't say she isn't trying. At least I got my family............
How you doin'? Am I nuts? I sure feel crazy. Easy Street was right over there somewhere, but I seem to be lost.......39 Cent Gasoline anyone ??