Thursday, June 26, 2014

From HBO's GAME of THRONES -->> DON't Go to the WEDDING, its a TRAP !!!, Bill Holter wrote that this week

There you had the single most shocking and bloody episode short of the Pacific Theater in WWII.  HBO did a stunning job in producing for me what is an addictive story.

     And yes almost everyone in the Stark Family dies at the Red Wedding.  So if it is a "Trap" do we all die?  No I don't think we do.  We know not to be disarmed and under the gaze of elevated galleries.  We know to have OUR men on the Gate, NOT partying, and make sure THE OTHER GUYS get drunk........need I go on??

      So why else are we not going to suffer the Stark Family's fate?  Well for my one and only fundamental point:  Last year during the TAX DAY MASSACRE, an amount of Gold CONTRACT Derivatives equal to 2.5X Newmont Mining's annual production was sold in one MARKET transaction, in the middle of the night.  When the follow up sales happened, there was not ONE bid left in the range. Cleaned every bid in sight and dropped the KRIMEX Fraud KUOTE by hundred's of FRN's.
    It seems to have scarred memories but not have its particulars called to mind, but I wanted to put the comparison  of the Tax Day Massacre against the THURSDAY Spike. I don't care what caused it, little would I want to deprive the Gurus of such good gossip.  Figuring the Notional amount of money in the TAX DAY MASSACRE, I came up with btwn $ 7 and 8 Bil. The notional amount involved in the THURSDAY SPIKE under but close to $ 500 Mil or HALF a BIL.
If i adjust for the time and transactions involved, I conclude that the Gold Derivative Contracts in the THURSDAY SPIKE, whether for delivery or wall paper, its pricing was about 8 TIMES to the upside than it was to the Downside in the TAX DAY MASSACRE.  Apparently large amounts of Gold Derivative Contracts traded to the Upside in apparent haste, scares a lot of people, which I take means that there are no longer large quantities of Gold for Good Delivery, very close at hand.  Kinda like, No more gold around here any more or so it seems.
      It is like someone is worried.
Now since I am a technical analyst, lets get technical :
    GDX started it's run about May 29 and ran up about 24 days, with one small down day about Jun 16, essentially marking the Halfway point of this leg so far.  I drew in 2 SRL's, Speed Resistance Lines which support prices moves until they run out of energy, and in this case, marked with GOLD Box where the last support intersected the week of July 8-11.  This rally leg ran about 24 days up, and so assuming a 50% time correction, according to GANN, we might see a correction or consolidation ( flat correction) lasting about 11 days, hence the week of
Jul 8-11.  Lots of talk about India gold tax changes coming manifest Jul 10, so I figure if it matters the market will beat them to the punch by a couple days early.

    We an look at the TREND MEASURE, the MACD underneath (Bottom Panel) if we want to see the trend rolling over in correction, and compare that with the MOMENTUM(WithIn Trend)(TOP PANEL), and it has dropped out of its Upside OverExtended posture. I am thinking GDX will correct but not break thru,so I'd pick about 23.75 to 24.75 for where it bounces off.  Last Line-In-The-Sand, I drew @ 23.5 GDX was smashed down to 22.0 GDX in 3 days, took a hockey puck bounce and ran up this Bull Leg to here.
   So while I know it can happen, that would mean that even if the LINE were busted like last time, say another 1.5 GDX points, we'd end up at 23 or
23.5 GDX ,at which point another Step By Step Bull Leg will come about to everyone's  great surprise.
  You can get more complex technicals, but I don't think anything could be more clear, so I watch.............Hope you will too !!