Thursday, June 26, 2014

From HBO's GAME of THRONES -->> DON't Go to the WEDDING, its a TRAP !!!, Bill Holter wrote that this week

There you had the single most shocking and bloody episode short of the Pacific Theater in WWII.  HBO did a stunning job in producing for me what is an addictive story.

     And yes almost everyone in the Stark Family dies at the Red Wedding.  So if it is a "Trap" do we all die?  No I don't think we do.  We know not to be disarmed and under the gaze of elevated galleries.  We know to have OUR men on the Gate, NOT partying, and make sure THE OTHER GUYS get drunk........need I go on??

      So why else are we not going to suffer the Stark Family's fate?  Well for my one and only fundamental point:  Last year during the TAX DAY MASSACRE, an amount of Gold CONTRACT Derivatives equal to 2.5X Newmont Mining's annual production was sold in one MARKET transaction, in the middle of the night.  When the follow up sales happened, there was not ONE bid left in the range. Cleaned every bid in sight and dropped the KRIMEX Fraud KUOTE by hundred's of FRN's.
    It seems to have scarred memories but not have its particulars called to mind, but I wanted to put the comparison  of the Tax Day Massacre against the THURSDAY Spike. I don't care what caused it, little would I want to deprive the Gurus of such good gossip.  Figuring the Notional amount of money in the TAX DAY MASSACRE, I came up with btwn $ 7 and 8 Bil. The notional amount involved in the THURSDAY SPIKE under but close to $ 500 Mil or HALF a BIL.
If i adjust for the time and transactions involved, I conclude that the Gold Derivative Contracts in the THURSDAY SPIKE, whether for delivery or wall paper, its pricing was about 8 TIMES to the upside than it was to the Downside in the TAX DAY MASSACRE.  Apparently large amounts of Gold Derivative Contracts traded to the Upside in apparent haste, scares a lot of people, which I take means that there are no longer large quantities of Gold for Good Delivery, very close at hand.  Kinda like, No more gold around here any more or so it seems.
      It is like someone is worried.
Now since I am a technical analyst, lets get technical :
    GDX started it's run about May 29 and ran up about 24 days, with one small down day about Jun 16, essentially marking the Halfway point of this leg so far.  I drew in 2 SRL's, Speed Resistance Lines which support prices moves until they run out of energy, and in this case, marked with GOLD Box where the last support intersected the week of July 8-11.  This rally leg ran about 24 days up, and so assuming a 50% time correction, according to GANN, we might see a correction or consolidation ( flat correction) lasting about 11 days, hence the week of
Jul 8-11.  Lots of talk about India gold tax changes coming manifest Jul 10, so I figure if it matters the market will beat them to the punch by a couple days early.

    We an look at the TREND MEASURE, the MACD underneath (Bottom Panel) if we want to see the trend rolling over in correction, and compare that with the MOMENTUM(WithIn Trend)(TOP PANEL), and it has dropped out of its Upside OverExtended posture. I am thinking GDX will correct but not break thru,so I'd pick about 23.75 to 24.75 for where it bounces off.  Last Line-In-The-Sand, I drew @ 23.5 GDX was smashed down to 22.0 GDX in 3 days, took a hockey puck bounce and ran up this Bull Leg to here.
   So while I know it can happen, that would mean that even if the LINE were busted like last time, say another 1.5 GDX points, we'd end up at 23 or
23.5 GDX ,at which point another Step By Step Bull Leg will come about to everyone's  great surprise.
  You can get more complex technicals, but I don't think anything could be more clear, so I watch.............Hope you will too !!

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

BANKER IMMUNITY - Why YOU pay for Bank Crimes ??

BANKER IMMUNITY My conclusion why you pay for Bankers crimes :
I contend that Big Banks have De Facto Immunity for crimes, foreign and domestic, in exchange assisting the US Treasury enforce US Global Financial policies. The Banks can get away with murder, maybe literally, in a modern example of “Quid pro Quo”(This for That) where upper Bank personnel are safe from fines and jail time. The Bankers know they will not go to jail, or, as a worst case, the Bank will be fined, and it treated as a cost of doing business, ultimately paid for by all of us. My reading tells me that no upper level employees ever missed a bonus let alone a conviction with punishment.

I think a clear picture of the problem emerged in the UK Telegraph's article on April 16th, 2014
US FINANCIAL SHOWDOWN WITH RUSSIA MORE DANGEROUS THAT IT LOOKS”. by Ambrose Evans-Prichard on April 16, quoted in Newsweek: “The Treasury has deputized the entire US financial system to achieve its foreign policy goals”. Based on the recent book “TREASURY's WAR” by Juan Zarate, former White House and Treasury Official, US Prosecutor, outlines the nature of the global nature of the effects of Sec 311 of the Patriot Act, designating countries, organizations and individuals as money-launders.

Thus the banks are the enforcement muscle (much like the Mob) of Treasury's overseas activities. Several White House Peer Review papers suggest that these enforcement duties should remain Treasury functions. In Treasury's desire to protect the US and extend the “Anaconda Strategy” developed by the North, while fighting the South in the Civil war, they can designate a country, bank or individual as a “Money Laundering Center”, with which everyone involved with them, upstream or down, is then declared OUTLAW, 'persona non gratis', and more radioactive than Fukishima. No one, for fear of being barred from the lucrative capital markets of New York City, will deal with them. Their lifeblood, cash flow, stops. Without JPM, BOA, CITI, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley, little money can be raised until other capital centers develop.
That was a practical reason as well as symbolic reason the “911” attackers targeted New York and the Twin Towers.
It is the beating heart of Global capital markets.

All of us know the “Systemically Important” Entities, critical to US Global Strategy. Americans and people globally, are aware of the legion of unprosecuted crimes committed by Big Banks. But when Banks break laws with impunity due to their De Facto immunity, a serious moral hazard exists. Other bank executives are emboldened to new heights of criminal activity and this creates more “unindicted co-conspirators”. I believe this is unconstitutional, bad practice, bad policy for the USA, and that it will have terrible long term consequences, already showing in the huge loss of respect for the USA's integrity and Rule of Law.

Contrast that NY Times notes that there were eight hundred forty-nine (849) convictions after the “Keating” Savings and Loan Scandal in the '90s, and but only one (1) conviction since this meltdown began in 2006, and that was an Egyptian born Credit Suisse employee. None of the so-called TBTF bank personnel were imprisoned. I don't think these banks are “Too Big To Fail,” however they are “Systemically Important” Entities. These Banks are not allowed to fail as they are the Muscle for US Global Financial Policies. US Treasury Anaconda Strategy cutting off cashflow, to entities they designate as “Primary Money Laundering Centers”, is an effective short term tactic, with serious negative long term strategic implications for the USA. De Facto immunity for Big Banks, has the current situation spinning out of control, a loose cannon on a stormy deck, injuring friend and foe. The people of the US deserve a respected Rule of Law, not one for Banks, and one for Others. Injuries by Banker Crimes are legion, from false home repossessions, to usury, to front running trades and rigging markets for their no-brainer profit trades. Do any readers NOT know someone so injured? Does anyone know anyone sent to jail for these crimes ? The very fabric of our society is being rent asunder for Banker profits.

Of course the proof that my contentions here are wrong, would be the vigorous prosecutions of those banks whose crimes have not passed the statute of limitations. The old Populist slogan addressing low corn prices was : “Raise more HELL, and less corn”; which may be metaphorically is the solution here. First it is clear the Big Banks and the Treasury that is supposed to regulate them, must be separated, and the Banks and Bankers prosecuted for their crimes including jail time. Having Treasury depend on the Banks to enforce their rules, looks unconstitutionally incestuous to me, without checks and balances. An oligarchic state is ruled by Banks and other large interests, a Republic or a Representative Democracy is not.

What happens next is critical in determining who rules. Restore Treasury enforcement of its regulations, foreign and domestic. Impose Real Regulation of the Banks and Financial Sector. Prosecute Bank Crime and adjudicate Jail Sentences upon the guilty, not just fines. The US may be feared, but not respected. That could turn to contempt and tends to weaken the US Dollar in value and in status as a Reserve Currency. Myriad challenges to the US DOLLAR as a Reserve Currency are in progress as we read this, and actually putting our Financial Sector back under the Rule of Law, may seriously retard, diffuse and deflect some of these challenges.

DENALIGUIDE, June 15, 2014

Thursday, June 12, 2014


Probably a Blown 340 MoPar, gonna blow the doors off the field at the US Nat'ls.

 The GDX?

 "Rocket on Rails" ?

 I think so.

   From what I see from the Chart below is that the Actual Price, climbing atop the Top Band on the Bollinger Bands, and usually it stays there until the MACD drops out of Upwards trending by the Twin Lines, lets look at it below:

       Notice that the Actual prices jumped atop the BB's top Rail as it trends upward AFTER it jumped the Line in the Sand ( BLUE LINE), and thus I'd have to take that as an indication of Power under this advance.  It seems to me what while people are conjecturing as to the validity of this advance they may lose the advantage of an early entry, protected by a good stop.  Waiting to see if it is validated is OK, if we get in on the Next Dip and I am sure there there must be, in reaction to the advance.  However strong advances often have FLAT corrections, which often outfox people waiting for a dip.

The other indication I have that we may have a FLAT Correction is that the NVI, the measure of buying on quiet days, is UP and AND moves in the same direction as the ACCUM ( Lime Green) corrections are often mild, since Buying occurs on down days as well.  Just one more note is the SIZE of the UP-Volume ( GREY ) is significant.

  I think, without a pun this famous view to our RIGHT is going to be the BEAR view of the GDX, pun intended, once this fake-out correction takes place, the advance will be hot enuf to warrant as little clothes as those Chevy riders are wearing.

Got your attention now?  Are you paying as much attention to the GDX's advance since May 29, as to the South end of these four ladies?  I hope so, cause this is a picture and the GDX is live and moving.  No I never had a Chev pickup truck like that either, loaded or empty.

Ya gotta pay attention to What's What, right?

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Saddle up Cowboys & Cowgirls, I suspect this herd is ready to stampede

"I love my uncle, he taught me all I know, he taught me so well ,  I grabbed that gold and left his dead a** by the side of the road."  Grateful Dead," Me and My Uncle".  Definitely a tale worth the listen and maybe the lesson.

   Right now in the PM Complex ,  GDM class stocks,  advances are outrunning declines 5::1 for the first Decisive day we had since we started bottoming.  We have had Outside days, yes, but nothing "Blow your Doors Off ", yet, but this looks like it.  The clincher will be the trading action in the last hour.

   Got some hammers hanging here a few days back so maybe our Jewish Carpenter will show up and build us a stairway to are the charts

OMG this is so beautiful, I think I will cry, LOL !!

Saddle up I say, we can always come

Travel light, hit hard and disappear.......

Only to show up again when least expected.  Ya'll

Sign up, and be ready, PEAK PICKS "All Ya need, Nutin' else"