Sunday, December 29, 2013

This is what a Break-Out Heads-Up in the PM Complex looks like

This is an Oscillator of the Breadth in the PM Complex, that works much like the McClellan Oscillator's work in the DJ and Gen Market sectors, and from their work we know that the Breadth Supports or resists Advances.  Here the Raw Data, in RED, has AGAIN decisively punched thru the BLUE moving Average, and the pronounced "W" pattern in the GDX is very apparent.  IMO> this is a heads up to us to watch a PM Sector rally Climb the Wall of Worry, right into the New Year.  So far it appears there is a lot of running room before it finds itself in "Over-Extended" territory, and should the $BPBDM, % of GDM Stocks in Bullish P & F Charts, tick upward, this cycle could re-cycle itself over and over until we reach a peak in the $BPGDM, which in Bull Runs has been in excess of 70+%.  Right now it stands at just 10% and thus has a lot of room to run upwards.  I think this is a major "Heads-Up".

Friday, December 27, 2013

PM COMPLEX RALLY

CONFIRMED by Short, Intermediate & Long Term Breadth & Volume Measures.  Today the last of 6 of them, broke out to the Upside, into Positive territory.  Graphix will follow ASAP upon rtn home.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Stealth Advance under the smoke screen of intense pessism from MSM assualt, and Guru attack?


   I expect that over the 12 Days of Christmas we will be treated to a real and confirmed advance in the GDX, perhaps not as spectacular as last Jul's rally but none-the-less, validated an confirmed.  Its MY opinion, so lets see.  First there is this:

    Then today's action, wiped out the negative action of last week and leaves us with tomorrow's shortened Christmas Eve Session to Take-Care-of-Business.
Your call, your money, IMO, this is about as bottom as you get, or could get a position in easily, with the smokescreen of the Christmas Holiday.  I shall hope its is a gift, and I hope it  is my gift to you.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
and its counter-part that I have marked with a support line

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Somebody playing with Copper? A mystery entity engages the Copper market, and GDX does a head Fake

When I think of Wheelman, Getaway drivers, two lyrics come to mind,  "Baby you can drive my car"( Beatles) and Steppenwolf's "Born to be Wild"


"Get your motor runnin'
Head out on the highway
Looking for adventure
In whatever comes our way"
     
 I for sure am keeping my motor running, my launch Mission on "Warm Standby".
We experienced a let-down yesterday, not a Failure-To-Launch.  Our 5 Coal Mine Canaries with the notable exception of COPX, are all flat. COPX on the other hand appears to have left the starting line in sterling fashion. 
                 Copper Miner ETF!

Friday, December 20, 2013

Keep the motor running, Wheelman, we may need a getaway vehicle yet...........


 What you are about to see, is a depiction of the up vs. down volume in the GDX, over time.  It  appears that this advance has died out as of Dec 19.

HOWEVER, this exact pattern was seen in the beginning of the June advance where virtually EVERYONE but a couple wags were certain we'd test and break old lows.   So far those lows have held.    Considering that virtually every bit of data and every measure is tainted as in "The Books are Cooked,  The Tape is Painted, and The Money is Queer.", its hard to take seriously small % moves violating old lows.  Seems that TIME and DIRECTION are our ONLY reliable constants, with everything else suspect.   Given this, I illustrate the Up / Down volume balance of the GDX.
Small though it is, it does show in Example "Y" ( Red Circle, Green Letters), that there are head fakes even in volume measures, and even as it is, I am putting my attention on STANDYBY, Warm - i.e. keep your engines running, even if it is a No-Idle Zone.

    The entire issue is that all measures of technical movement are in seriously overextended downside positions.   Can they get deeper, yes, but at that point they flatten down on the bottom like whale manure, and cant go any lower.

Next post we will look at some "canaries in the coal mine" and see if they hold any info for us.

Meanwhile some ideas concerning "shifting sands" which it seems the Western Financial System is based on:

Charles Hugh Smith's blog

and the reference that Matt Tabbi used to QUARTZ in an block-buster article

QUARTZ

   the Operative quote being:

"For those keeping score: That means the world’s key price benchmarks for interest rates, energy and currencies may now all be compromised."

  So the question you ask yourself is NOT " Do I feel Lucky Today" but

 WHAT IS NOT OR CANNOT BE MANIPULATED?

The real deal is you have to put on your X-RAY vision glasses, like Clark Kent to see thru the fog. 

Tune in again and see if the canaries are still singing............ 

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Well it looks nice, but does it taste good ?


     Now all Christmas like see the nice big GREEN volume sticks?  Does this look like the saucer that Nana uses under the mug of hot chocolate she used to make for you ?

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Unnecessary risks or "My Get Out of Jail Free Card has expired ?"

As much as I like this guy,  I am quite on edge when what he says publicly contradicts what he says publicly.  It gives the case of that terrible affliction,
COGNITIVE DISSONANCE (sic), and I toss and turn, trying to pick out what doesn't fit together right, as if a puzzle created with a hammer, jigsaw and chicken soup.  Right, it makes me lose sleep.  Something is wrong here, and the more explanations we get the wronger it gets.  Judge for yourself what Martin Armstrong has to say.  All that is here, is taken from what HE says.  I enjoy reading his works, which of course leads to my surprise as he contradicts himself, and hence my discomfort.  You decide for yourself.


Lets assume that MA is a good market analyst, and student of human behavior. I do. His work on capital flows and time cycles are excellent, with certain exceptions IMO.

Now lets go to one of his most oft repeated ( and accepted ) premises about humans.

Events repeat because human passions never change” - that's a liberal paraphrase that I think will stand.

Thus, if his writings are true, they will adhere to his logic and principles or be subject to being thought false.

Human passions include, Greed, Ego, and Control, three of which we focus upon as we examine the current situation.

Note: Not all bulls must be wiped out to start a Bull market. Just the ones with effective demand, less than effective supply.

The BOYZ by Armstrong's concept, are in the biz to PROFIT, i.e. From GREED, so we see that human passion as a constant.

DIRECT QUOTE:”The Club are in this game for the quick fast buck – not for systemic manipulation.
Thus if GREED were a constant in say, manipulating Gold Paper Contracts, imagine one of the Anointed Fund Managers, in Gold, liquidating it, saying “Wow I was able to dump all my contracts AT ONCE, and lowered my realized return 12% by selling in a bunch into that Illiquidity at midnite !” I took it down so hard I broke EVERY BID so I could not make a dime. Wasn't that GREAT ? ?!?!” Please give me a break here. Do we think for a minute a profit-seeking manager would do that? Especially if they were liquidating to save their bacon...NO.

DIRECT QUOTE: Talking directly with real sources, it has been liquidation. Really ?
DIRECT QUOTE:”You simply MUST break the back of sentiment to reverse a trend be it up or down.
Wow – does anyone NOT think the Back of the Sentiment concerning Gold NOT been broken ALREADY ? Again, REALLY ??


EGO – hardly likely that MA is playing in these markets, but he is the one with the EGO on the line, so lets cross that one off for now.

CONTROL – well by process of elimination, this becomes a prime candidate. Who would want to control the Gold Paper price and make it appear less likely >? Quo Bono, or who profits from this ? A secondary question is whom is big enough to marshal enough capital or margin to make these sales.

Note: That physical demand in Asia is strong is irrelevant?

Note: If it were the CLUB with its myriad members, its likely they WOULD blow up, but if there is only ONE ACTOR and one member, its as likely NOT, IMO.


On one hand, MA suggests that without the Paper Gold Market there would be no liquidity, and the next moment suggests that “Normal Liquidations” occur at midnite with no one trading on the Paper Gold Market, so then I have to ask, where's the liquidity, and laugh as you will, but have you ever heard of e-Bay. Would someone try something like that the merchants would be cleaned OUT instantly.


DIRECT QUOTE: “From a price perspective,so far there is no indication that gold is entering a long-term bear market. We should confine the decline to 3 years max and the sharp price drop we just saw is VERY GOOD because we want to see it thrust down to achieve that decline within the short time frame. This is always about price and time. So if we can see gold break the 1,000 level in 2014, we have a reasonable shot at this being finished. If we do not see that price level, then yes, we could see it drag on for 5 years total. “ THIS is from a guy that called for $5,000 Gold BEFORE he got out of prison ON Parole, based on the same research he is using now.

So lets now look at the evidence, although incomplete, and circumstantial, and see if it worth bothering with,

Pre-Release, MA predicts “$5K gold. Post-Release – predicts Gold must go under $1K to set up the next bull move.

MA says human passions for profit never change.

MA then says, funds are the ones liquidating gold.
What fund would have such an interest in liquidating that much gold in poor trades?
What fund has the resources to margin that much gold?
What fund would NOT be prosecuted for manipulation of this sort?

MA then says, its normal for a fund manager to limit or lessen his profit by selling the worst possible quantity at the worst possible time.
WHOA is that contradiction?
MA says The Club or The Boyz are only in this for a quick profit. OK so which idea is right here? Either they are in it for profit, or is it NOT THEM but someone else?

MA says that we must break the back of the Bull sentiment in Gold.
Really, its not done yet? REALLY ?

Really Martin? I think you are doing such a bad job of covering up what, IMO, is the action of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, that if beating up gold was a condition of your parole, your take risks, as what you say makes no sense.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Not only does this guy have them NAILED, it brings up a very humorous point

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

 He addresses a vital point, in the article "MONEYCHANGERS" - simply,
 TOO MUCH MONEY IS GOING INTO SAVINGS.   I know you'd like to know who,what, why, how, when and where, because from where I sit, I know its NOT HAPPENING to me - is it happening to you ?  NO ? Well then, WHAT is going ON ?

     Here is what I have figured out from what I found out:  

THE SUPER RICH ARE REALLY PISSED OFF AND WANT THEIR MONEY BACK !!

What money you say ?  I say, remember when you earned a living wage ?
Remember when you didn't need a home equity loan to have a boat and could
pay for things outright.  THAT MONEY !  The money that you got when, after WWII there was a social compact agreed upon that after winning the BIG ONE,  the working class could enjoy a bit of respite, whilst the LEISURE CLASS took their foot of the windpipe of the WORKING CLASS ?  Sadly I had an early look, at it coming to an end about 20+ years ago, reading a radical rag outlining just this premise.    Yeah, we didn't notice too much at the time, like a frog in a pot being slowly boiled by raising the temp 1 deg F per hour ........ and now we are boiled.......

      Remember when  you had equity in your home unreduced by the Home Equity Line of Credit......?  Remember when we had employment where we made things, not cleaned them?   Yep, that money.....gained in a double whammy by off-shoring our jobs, and reducing our employment classification from manufacturing, to service sector ?  Yep that money.  Oh yeah remember when you did not HAVE to have a CELL FONE ?  Oh its not mandatory you say?  Try not having one.......how much was  your entertainment and telecom bill last month ?  Yeah, That Money !.How about when your kid(s) and or grand kids come home to consolidate their bills and living quarters, under your roof or in your rental property, because 3 student loans and 2 degrees still have not produced a liveable income for them.  Yes Student Loans.  YEAH THAT MONEY !!
      Now give credit where credit is due.  All the changes were gradual, and all could be rationalized, at the time, even if it carried a 19.9% Interest rate or for those SPECIAL of us, a 29.9% rate.  No pressure, just yearning for a better life - did we fail at our due dilgence?  Maybe, but we got "F" for gullibility.!!

      For damn sure, the SUPER RICH are saving too damned much money.
The Velocity of Money has gone through the floor.  Is that because the 99% are spending too little money?  Or is it because we have too little to spend......?
Lets figure this money is in deep, deep pockets from which it NEVER emerges until our homes and farms and businesses are on the block of forclosure at 2% on the Dollar ( another joke, the corruption of the term MONEY ).
       So if we track the Velocity of the money of the 99%, it's like an F-16 on AfterBurner, and for the 1%, it might as well be a snail.    
    The old saying is that money like manure is no good in one big pile, to really work it has to be spread around.     Sitting in large piles in corporate treasuries and Bank Balance sheets, they don't have to earn anything but a positive return to be of value, and that could be as low as 0.1%.  Beings that they get the money gratis from the FED, its all gravy.  NO you and I in the 1% don't get gravy.  What we are getting now makes the daily ration of fish heads and rice water in an Asian POW Camp look like a 9 course buffet.  We get "Debt-Script" or SlaveMoney which essentially can only be spent at the Company Store.  
We DON'T get money (MONEY)(Wiki Money).   We get transactional currency, Debt-Script, which always has a counter-party paying us something in a price ratio, but no fixed value.  Dear me, do NOT bring up GOLD/SILVER unless you want to be harangued all nite till the liver is scared out of you about them.
   Apparently our part in all this as per the 1% is to work willingly and cooperatively in this system to attain their approval and "Attaboys", keeping calm and carrying on so they can claw back all the peasants managed to filch from the estate without their prior approval.

   Now friends, don't get me wrong.  I am not bitter.  I have made my million, and spent it, (well almost made a million but spent more), and have a happy life.  I just wonder when people like Summers and Geither will be laughed off the public stage telling us WE ARE SAVING TOO MUCH MONEY.
    I just wonder when people will tell governments to piss off, that the Govt does not need to know who our friends are that we play Candy Crush with,  and when said Govt's are going to UnFriend the Saudis for playing Double Agent in 9/11 against us.
   I am wondering when Governmental Double Speak, about Hope for the future, is squared up with Borrowing everyone's future, and bringing the lunacy of this "Apocalypse NOW" war machine back to normal scale.
   I am wondering when Vox Populi will realize that CHINA is not the biggest enemy of the WEST, but rather as Pogo once said, "We have met the enemy and he is US", he is the 1% that would sell us out for Vutton, Chanel, on their wrists, feet and hands........  As MA said, glad I am mortal......LOL.

Maybe in the next installment you can read why Martin Armstrong's "GET OUT OF JAIL FREE" card may turn into a pumpkin if he is not careful.

One little chart to leave you with, from a guy, who knows a guy, who has a cousin that works on the inside:


GUESTBOOK