Monday, January 9, 2012

The tides that guide us, flow by, as we try to recognize the turning points

and this chart below,while not perfect, gives an idea where things can go, at least in the short run or for the next repetition of each cycle. Its not rocket science, but it is work.......
We dont have to be concerned what anyone but ourselves would do when faced with this.  What is your move?  Two cycles are illustrated playing off each other here.  There are more but for the simplest approach, these two cycles inter-mesh for me, giving me a plausible "work-out" to this cluster of cycles.......

some sayings sound like "THIS IS A GOOD DAY TO DIE, if one must"

and I say, this is a good day to try.   Read Maudlin's article today, and excerpted it and added some of my stuff, and I think its about as good as it gets, at least simply put to say where we are, where we are going and how we might try to steer this.  Good Luck.



The politico's and their lapdog economist and statistical manipulators try to shower us with nice facts and tell us its going to be OK, and wont hurt.......Did anyone ever lie when they said “THIS WON't HURT” ?
We run the T-charts and they show that the Euro-Markets are showing us at the edge of the cliff of Catastrophic System Failure, orders of magnitude later than the previous LEHMAN crises.
Like baking a cake we cannot go back to an earlier stage of this deal. We may have to “VOLCKER” our way out, to try to recycle and thus reset to an earlier stage.
As in the “29th DAY” and the BANG MOMENT by Cochrane, we can recognize the exact instant confidence is lost. That is the moment a HyperInflation begins. We can recognize it but not pinpoint it in advance.
At that BANG MOMENT, even for the USA, the math does not work.
If massive currency is printed, the true value of all that in circulation, falls, as confidence drains faster than providing new currency and credit can shore it up.
Out of the 200+ times this happened historically and globally it was NEVER DIFFERENT. Canada, Sweden, Argentina. No the last one may not surprise you, and in fact they are still the “walking wounded” but Canada and Sweden got it together, “VOLCKERED IT UP” and emerged in one piece. Not unscathed, for there will be PAIN from hard choices. The answer to a diabetic's problem is NOT more sugar......neither is debt a solution for a debt problem.
The governments are drunk in unlimited borrowing and now the hangover is setting in. Ironically, the private debt is the least of the problems facing us now.
WAR, the undeclared 2 decade war in Vietnam was one of the catalysts for a huge failure in US Finance policy to borrow instead of tax to run that war. Now we are in hip deep doing exactly the worst things we could do in the ROW, ala Vietnam.
While the US still has wiggle room to make some viable choices, like the “29th DAY”, time will run out before you know it........... When Banks like Unicredit and SocGen take a 40%+ haircut on their stock, you know
The fuse is lit, if only still smoldering in Europe but it WILL EXPLODE ala Lehman (TIMES) (X) Orders of magnitude into a GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS FAILURE.
Since they are politicians, by defination, they cannot make the right decision which is to disengage the cycle, yes War Ever, Forever Indebted and all, yes. It will be dangerous, the greatest danger when its announced, but IMO, its either that or consequences we are never prepared to endure. We have aging populations, aging industries, and to survive, they must re-invigorate. PAINFUL ? YES ! NECESSARY ? YES!
Seems to me the War Ever, Forever Indebted Cycle [WEFIC ] (this time around called the Rothschild Cycle) CYCLE must end now or we will be forced to endure the consequences for which we are NOT and NEVER could be prepared.
Our politicians act as if they are the ANOINTED, but seems that in the Christian world, at least, Psalm 72 parts 1 & 2 says this, very briefly,

Insure political & economic justice
Engender Peace & Eliminate Violence
Does this sound like what the US Govt is doing?

Can you see any of the current elected leadership doing any of the above? Maybe they are not the ANOINTED they think they are........