Monday, February 27, 2012

Maybe a lot of reasons for this, but it seems there cannot be a right reason

for this, seems very out of kilter, out of whack
To assure myself I was not dreaming, I ran separate Linear Regressions on the NYSE Volume(BLUE) and the NY Stock Exchange Average(RED) and they are clearly going their separate ways by a large margin, which is a concern for me as markets tend to resolve in the direction of the volume.  There are enough BLACK SWANS around to warrant lots of caution and this is huge RED FLAG for me, concerning general equities. I'd have to say it makes me feel the market is quite treacherous. 
    Given the latter GREENSPAN years when the GREENSPAN PUT was in effect and "they" would just not let the markets go down, BEFORE Lehman and the Euro Crises and it puts me even more on edge.
Armstrong is fond of saying that money will be fleeing debt securities for stocks, but that does not eliminate the idea of a serious either Flash Crash or Ala'87 type move, which I want not to be involved in, on the long side until it abates.  Right now I am waiting for THAT shoe to drop.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Scary strong Silver accumulation curve


"Gun Fight at the OK Corral", 100+ mil oz of paper silver FAILED, lost

the gunfight.  +100 Mil oz of Paper shorts failed to cap Comex Silver price under $35 USD.  Getting Scary !

Standy by to see where it goes from here ! ! ! The metal silver is the thing that is not so easily capped.

Friday, February 24, 2012

This is THE one party where you will NOT want to be late --

for I think being late to take protective action will carry a lot of bad karma..

Way better to sell "TOO EARLY" than be 1 second late.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

As intent as I watch the general market, this development in silver has my

attention, and here is why:

The current silver advance may be fought over at 35, but of course the hidden item is that the derivative contracts are supposed to have a "Poison Pill" clause ( according to WB sources, formerly of JPM) that considerably "poison the soup" if the silver price stays above 36 for 60 days.   Lets just forget about that for a moment, and look at the "GOAL LINE"  on this regression chart.  The middle line is essentially a moving pivot that divides weakness from strength, and this is a LT Chart, 3 yrs.  On the shorter charts, 3 mo, 6 mo & 1 yr,  the price ( even COMEX at that) has surmounted the middle line and moved into strength.  NOW it remains to be seen if the price will leap over that middle line anytime before Jun 30 (arbitrary date).  My numbers say Silver can bounce off the ceiling at 37.5, 40.0 or 42.5, without RADICALLY changing the trend we are now stuck with.  What will RADICALLY alter the balance is the Silver price VAULTING over that blue line, because that then, from a statistical point of view, suggests that SILVER is then going to Touch the Top Line before the TREND has a chance to re-set its Equilibrium.  It seems to me from my crude attempts to measure that top level that it would be btwn 70 & 90 U$D, again my guess  at this point.  Its a guess, but an educated guess, IMO.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

OH OH > I think the Clock just struck Mid-Nite !! Top Break Over?

WE see the fluctuations on the MACD panel at the bottom getting larger, but since it is a co-incident to slighly lagging indicator, we cannot infer any size of the Up-Down move UNTIL it gives us the clue.

HOWEVER, directionally, the MACD has spoken and broken to the downside.  Rather confusing and this is NOT adjusted for Commodity Pricing, so is an absolute indicator that Breadth, and this by implication, Prices on equities will be moving lower. 

Reading this Blog you know the Base measure on this chart, Mr, Nasty, $NASI, shows that the accumulated rolling total of net advances is in fact, now declining.   The purple line is Tri-Continental Corp, one of my favorite closed end funds that serves as an excellent proxy for the rest of the markets, and it's motion relative to MR.NASTY and its 6 day exponential moving average reveal a high and tight direct correlation.  This is a validation check for me.

So IMO, we go down from here, as is typical of a cyclical drain-out of basic Funds-Liquidity.  IMO, the tide will reverse itself in true cyclical fashion down the road a bit.

Good Luck


Thursday, February 16, 2012

The clock keeps ticking

And so you are left asking yourself, where you will be, what you will be doing at the appointed hour that the decline manifests itself in a conclusive and unmistakable way.  What bothers me is that the more air they blow into this balloon, the bigger the bust and consequent fall will be, maybe more rapid and scary as well.

    Will there be a "Preciptating Factor" or will it be the usual pretext.  Maybe a BLACK SWAN ?

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

WHOOPS !! Lets just say it with a picture

I think the point is perfectly clear........

*for ya'll who'd like to know what Mr.Nasti is, here it is from Stockcharts : "Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. Even though it is called a Summation Index, the indicator is really an oscillator that fluctuates above/below zero. As such, signals can be derived from bullish/bearish divergences, directional movement and centerline crossovers. A moving average can also be applied to identify upturns and downturns."

you can find it here -> AT STOCKCHARTS

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

And the "Hits" keep coming, "Top or Bottom", "Dirty Laundry" update

Truly that is hard to interpret, any way you look at it as a Bottom, wouldn't you say?

   Another thing occurs to me, is why would anyone put their Core Savings in anything that was a debt or obligation of someone or something else ?  I think the answer to what some may wish to do is here, -> . It is the course of action, for that part of  your funds you CANT risk, IMO.

   For a longer term look, 8 mo's instead of 4 mo's here it is below.  Good Luck.  DG

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Don Henly-> "DIRTY LAUNDRY" -> ....."give me some news I can use...."

ok ya'll asked for it.  News.  For all practical purposes the market has declared ad De Facto Default in Greece.
Was it in Sept or Oct ? Don't matter much BECAUSE, it wasn't MF Global that crashed the market during September when all the big money left the market for places to hide, as it did.

What we have here, is NOT " A failure to communicate", so much as a schizo market that is going crazy due to the conflicting data, and cyclical influences and the waning of a very powerful lunar cycle.

WHOOPS, the Pink line [the rolling 5 day total of Hi's minus Lo's], just stumbled yesterday, after Ben Bernacke bumped his head on the debt ceiling and let on that the employment figures were a result of "cooking the books" through a backwards looking "Seasonal Adjustment", dropping people from the unemployment rolls because they were so discouraged they stopped looking for work.  Apparently they are no longer "unemployed", they simply dont have jobs.

WHOOPS were you feeling crazy ? Your not, the market is simply reacting to the Schizophrenia out there.

SCHIZOPHRENIC ? Yes look at the bottom panel of the chart above.   The accelorometer of the UP VOLUME On the NASDAQ is dropping as fast as it can.  Last time that happened it was before the decline in Nov as noted by the Wilshire 5000 chart panel underneath it.  Now with the conflicting influences of an UP cycle and a Down cycle overlapping, the market is working to adapt both movements into its mix, as you can see by the very volatile movements of the NASDAQ UpVolume over-extension first to the Upside (green blocking, blue circle) then to the Downside ( brown blocking, red circle), in such a short time btwn 3 Feb and 8 Feb, again, indicative of another kind of internal volatility in the "Markets Mind".

How is this "News you can Use" ?  Given my most recent Signal Alert, we know to set our orders in different places for different assets.  More or less like some of the Snare-Line tricks some of my Athabascan friends showed me over the years........

Seems this market is unable to hurdle the old highs by any meaningful margin, since "adjusted" by any number of measures, it is way lower than it was in May of 2012.  We see lots of individual stocks getting whacked and it leads me to wonder if the "correction" at hand is simply taking stocks out, one by one and slaughtering them before the market can get on with its rally.

Basically Greece's default is "afait accompli", and we have been in a Bull Market from that point forward ( last fall, IMO), and now we are in the throes of a correction, where upon, some money will come out of hiding when the correction is over.
Anything the market is doing now, is discounting events that most of us are blissfully  unaware of, as yet.
You don't have to do this alone, there is help..........Sign up on the deal at the top of this page and take the shot for a free 4 issues of PEAK PICKS and see if it does not improve your performance, no risk, no charge, my treat.

Even if you don't sign up, please be alert........
Good Luck.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Ask yourself, does it look like a top or a you need a hint?

Like the concept of Negative Interest, this is getting disturbing as the 10 Yr Treas has gone under 1.9%, as i t has on all Crises dates.  WE go Davos, We got the Greek Settlement, we got the ISDA deciding WHETHER the GREEK deal is a DEFAULT.  No stability here, I think.  Maybe a minor patch, but the Ship of the Global Economy has its PUMPS working overtime, and any pause in the pumping will sink the COSTA CONCORDIA -> global economy even lower in the water = worrisome.

Below is a depiction of the Momentum of the ADVANCES and DECLINES by MR. NASTI, which reflects the entire Nasdaq markets movement, rather a broad take which gives us direction.  This one bothers me as it shows the WIDTH and BREADTH of that that Market's advances slowing and heeling over, top heavy.  I make NO predictions other than to say, this has been my most reliable indicator over the last say 15 yrs.
So you may take it for what its worth..........

                Lastly below, is a chart that is easily re-produced, and has 3 components, one of Trend, one of Momentum Within the Trend, and one of Volume.  The MACD is as well a trend and timing indicator, so I include it for for your interest..........Here I use the Wilshire 5000 as it is very broad, and weighted as well, so I think a good reflection of what is actually happening in a Co-Incident Timing ( right up-to the moment).
I use it to determine relative position, not to predict, although position is important to attempt to guess at what is next.........

Its About Time someone said it, without burying it. Bill Gross buried it so here

it is, taken from PIMCO's Feb Outlook published today, as I see it:

The King of Bonds, IMO, Bill Gross of PIMCO (so aptly named) today issued his Feburary OUTLOOK LETTER, entitled

Life – and Death Proposition
and while the very good but somewhat superficial writers at Business Insider sub-title
it for Gross's bemoaning the “end of abundance”, there is a more telling thought expressed about three “run-on” sentences from the end of the article, buried as it were.

Apparently it is only an after thought to the writer and editor of this “OUTLOOK” as they are “talking their book”, Bonds. To us, perhaps in a more balanced or not stance, it looks as if it is saying what many of us have been saying since this long slide started back in the '60's. I quote his (Bill Gross), and bold it, leaving it exactly as it appeared going out to his poss : “Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper. “ The italics and underline are mine.
Now the “IT” he refers to his here: “Where else can one go, however? We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, can we? Of course not, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration. “ This is where he is discussing the lack of viable investment options if a T-Bond is locked down at a yield of 5 basis points. I think the POINT is made.

Observers pointed out, that removing gold, would have severe consequences. Now that is acknowledged by no less than the KING of Bonds, and yet it is still buried. IMO this is worse than a sick patient getting a “Smoke & Mirrors” diagnosis of an ailment killing him, and the doctor refusing to reveal the cause, even when there is a cure. Sad and dangerous, to everyone on this Planet Earth.