Wednesday, October 7, 2009
CPT Namo did not cover the amount of ground he usually does in a rebound. Optimism is everywhere........Not that I am a total skeptic, but as they say, "SHOW ME, DONT TELL ME ! ".
So its not my delusion that a number of popular indices look poised for a rebound, perhaps, however, rebound that it might be I'D BE HOLDING MY STOPS TIGHTLY, and PAYING ATTENTION. The SILLY SEASON for Earnings is HERE, and is double edged, considering that liquidity is driving this market and can turn tail and flee in an instant at the slightest sign of trouble.
I feel not unlike at a party on verge of my 4th drink, my field awareness dimmed, and it seems like everything is going GREAT and it is tomorrow morning and that is where my last recollection ended, just before my 4th drink ! ! ! WE HAVE PROFITS !
We will get to spend them, if we are aware enuf to keep them..........
but since a lot of folks are hungry for info, this is what I got on the FWR vs. NOT
deal going on in the "RING of FIRE" on the James Bay Lowlands. You might further compare the two companies charts, i.e. VISIBLE MATH, or GRAPHIC MARKET PLACE ASSESSMENTs, and ask youself, without too much interpretation, which one manifests energy, and which one looks tired, because the difference is readily apparent. In this situation, it appears that the first punch was clearly not a knockout, and actually was just enuf to energize the other parties. With PM's running the hot one they have going on, I'da expected Noront to have rallied more unless this is all they have going for them. If they exhaust themselves here, and their stock drops, they may end up acquired. Considering the spotty track record of their management effectiveness, that might not be bad.
Here is a some of what I posted on the NORONT Board at stockhouse today;
I was in on the original donnybrook when NOT first popped. and DROPPED. Basher trash all over, beatin them back into their cages with sticks a couple years ago....
FWR is kinda in that position today. Two differences. NOT really has a bunch of xxxx xxx hedgies running it, and FWR has a miner / engineer who has "been there, done that". No one, no one is worth their salt if they didnt see this coming. [ Betrayal is a normal business tactic !! ] A Certain Miner/Engineer/CEO has done it all, did the Helmo thing, and came out good. Therefore, before you get too crazy, ask yourself which company you'd rather own, as they stand today at these prices.
I been in on both and rather than Not being 4X greater than FWR, I'dsay FWR is 4X greater than NOT.v from a whole buncha perspectives. Cautious as the market might be, they have not caved to Not's offer,and from the nature of the bidding, might rather own FWR intact, andindpendent. And yes there is WINDFALL, the crapper that started it all........
IT kinda doesnt matter whether good ole Richart Nemsisname or thehedgies are running this outfit, they seem to make a good stroke andthen neutralize themselves with the next move. HOWEVER you can betthat there is now a lot of POSITIVE Publicity about the ROF. To me,even a year ago, FWR looked like a sleeper. I think the sleep is over.
If I had assessed NOT as having the same potential then, I'da got it, and not FWR.
CLIFFS has the hammer, the cash. NOT's deal is NEW SHARES, NOT.vlooks a little tired to me, and instread of real horsepower, there willbe more smoke and mirrors, IMO. FWR's next stop, technically looks tobe 80 cents, which of course if NOT holds its share price, would be a 2for 1 offer, which I also think will not succeed, but you got to admit,it is nice for FWR that they are expending all this effort and money instead of drilling more..........