Saturday, June 6, 2009

Wild Weasels, Part Duex

Sort of a ragged imitation of the first of 2009's rally. Refer to "SON of Same Vs. Wild Weasels" Post and chart for reference. Basically volume is dropping which is an unhelpful development.


Son of Sam meets WILD Weasels

BLUE Line = VOLUME; PURPLE Dashed = Small Cap Index;
RED = Summation Index[weighted breadth index]

BROWN = NYSE cumulative NET advances-declines

VOLUME is the fuel for advances. VOLUME = VALIDITY. True advances are accompanied by serious volume.

PRICE is valid when accompanied by price, or its a PINNOCHIO.

LONG TERM BREADTH HEALTH is reflected by the Summation Index, which is trying to work higher but seems as if it is mired in molasses.

NYAD is the shorter term of the Breadth, and measures what the market is doing.

RUT, the purple is the SMALL Cap Price Index, and it is a pace with short term breadth.

How much credibility will we assign to all the price moves and gyrations that are
NOT Validated by VOLUME?

How much credibilty will we assign to all the price moves and gyrations which are begrudging accompanied by breadth barely keeping pace and unable to move to new
highs with any serious conviction?

My view is that we are working towards the Second Surge, the Second Top, the Second Peak. I am so very guilty of being right way too early, so I am standing here LONG, on some of my pix, and short several others which are NOT participating in this rally.

Analyzing my tendencies, like Running a Play Action Pass on FIRST Down, teaching me to review my play calling. Review your tendencies. Evaluate this market.
Decide your plays by how long you think you have on the clock. First Half? THIRD Quarter? Would you settle for a 3 pt Field Goal here? Or merely running the clock out? Its your ball, your money.