Saturday, April 11, 2009

Correction, ongoing?

Sometimes things like this correction seem very puzzling.

The correction is ongoing, in time, and space but not yet in price. To put some perspective on this, recently I did a Fibonacci time series on some of my favorite indexes and I came up with HIGHS for April 20. So it seems to me, that the price segment of this Correction, might well manifest itself about that time. For certain, the Advances & Declines show no real sign of abatement of upside movement, nor do the price indexes. Does this mean, NO CORRECTION ?? No, Virginia, IMO, it means that the market will do whatever is necessary to fool the greatest number of participants.

A brief look at the VIRAL V1.3 $BKX projects a decline for the bank index after this April 20 top, so I will stick with the thesis that a decline is in store for the main indexes after Apr 20.

Probably a rally lasting to April 20 will fool quite a lot of people and the Talking Heads will help the MM's complete the distribution by opining that perhaps its now safe to invest. Oh well.

In a very real sense, I think we have seen a sea change and a range change since late 2008. Cant call it a bull market, but I can say, this market will no doubt clean your clock if your on the wrong side of the trend, and its inherent volatility.

A number of guru's are calling for a disaster decline and bottom in the fall, but I just cant see that far, so I will stick with my short term/ intermediate term scenario 2-4 mo out. As far as I am concerned,the Nightmare SCARENARIO, is always possible when investors are either complacent or overconfident, so be aware.

Happy Holiday.


First things First - Happy Holidays Everyone

Please take a moment this weekend to reflect on the blessings bestowed on us those closest to us, as we celebrate in our freedoms, under rule of law.

Happy Holidays .

For those of you who read Jim Sinclair, know that I occasionally write on "The Wall" in the Facebook group.
Jim's most recent comment, "A short sells rationale for not covering", discussed
the complete devastation of the junior gold miners, specifically those in exploration and development. An unattributed quote appears as thus :"To prevent the field from obtaining financing.". Reading this, you have to admit this is the NEUTRON-BOMB NUCLEAR OPTION, which leaves the properties in question re-possessed by the lender. NEAT ! Except that it leaves the rest of us dead ! Not that we are not already the Walking Wounded, which in large measure, from all those I communcate with, we really are ! ! !

Certainly that puts the IAG-Orezone Merger in a good light, as these lads both have exciting properties,and are probably now stronger for the merger. Certainly it did NOT stop IAG from going to more equity financing, which is the preferable route to borrowing from predatory lenders, whom we shall for lack of a better term call: "THEY". THEY understand the gold market, understand that gold is money, and that he who has the gold makes the rules. THEY have dealt money and gold for centuries and have THEIR "drill" perfected. THEY tried to cut off all options to NEW gold properties.

The DIRTY-WAR in the PM sector continues, as THEY, having deep pockets, are a respository of the money that was supposed to have been DESTROYED. Its in their deep pockets and they have it to LEND, if THEY can get the right terms. If I remember right El Dorado Gold [ EGO ] postponed an equity offering last month due to bad market conditions for them. Now that their equity price is soaring, might they have obtained reasonable financing or simply wait their turn for equity placement.
Mind you they are the lowest cost producer in some table of compilations, coming in at $286 per oz produced, so they might be quite desirable but yet no longer a vulnerable junior explorer.

In my comments about Jim's article "CONNECT THE GOLDEN DOTS", I outlined the actor behind the curtain. In his last article Jim outlined the rationale and M.O. of the THEIR agents. Compiling that data, the next consolidations we see amongst smaller members of the gold mining community, will probably be those "Marriages of Convience" or "Arranged Marriages" that hold hope for everyone but THEM. THEY would like to see more SHOTGUN MARRIAGES of failed loans and such, but as bad as things are, THEY are so naked and transparent in their motives, M.O. and activities, THEY might have a bit of difficulty getting blood from their proposed victims.

A clear case in point, is the "Partner From HELL", that both Mineras Andes and GORO share, who has shown their fangs in the case of GORO by calling a loan at the worst possible time. Not that the loan caller in the GORO case was the ACTUAL actor, but rather that their financial advisor is, IMO, part of this larger insidious network THEY have. If you have a question as to their identity, or care to protect your investments from their plunder and pillage, please feel free to email me and I will outline the sequence of events and issues that IMO, spotlights THEM.