Wednesday, February 11, 2009


YOU BE THE JUDGE - DID IT TEST THE BOTTOM SUCCESSFULLY - Did it establish a higher bottom ? A picture is worth a thousand words, yes?

Carry on !



As I drive down the Parks Hiway, on the way to Denali Park, we cross some beautiful stretches of black spruce. Smallish spruce trees, sometimes in patches so thick they are called "doghair spruce" for their tight spacing. They grow in low muskeg areas that will support trees, say, south of Nenana, between there and Anderson, Alaska. About 60 miles of "scenic spruce"' say 3 inches thick and about 6 feet tall. Sixty Miles by about 160 miles. Flat, boggy, spruce covered muskeg.

So scenic in fact my partner turns to me, and says "THERE IS NOTHING OUT THERE",which is so true, nothing you could use to mark the landscape. Doghair spruce as far as the eye can see.
White in winter, green and mosquity in sumer. Yet viewed from afar, with its blue, aromatic hydro carbon haze, it is something, it is out there. When you see the moutains in the background, and the Tanana River running thru it, it fits in like a puzzle.

For the last three weeks, this is the way the market has felt, bobbing up and down, breaking out to the upside and coming back testing the downside. As in foreshadowing, it keeps breaking to the upside, successfully testing its downside, showing me the bias is up. Breadthwise it has kept breaking to the upside and the wider indexes, such as VLE & WLSH are well above their previous lows. For example, the VLE established a low of 1016 during the end of NOV, and hit a higher low of 1255 around Jan 20, but has not gone lower. WLSH, which is more capitalization weighted established a low of 7340 in the same time as VLE and again, like VLE, in the same time frame has not gone lower than 8122, even now.

So the broader indexes have successfully established HIGHER Bottoms, and keep moving, no matter how slowly, grinding upwards, so slowly that it seems to us that "THERE IS NOTHING OUT THERE ". So just as those who closely examine the seemingly featureless boreal forest,


Look around, look closely, DYOHW.