Sunday, October 25, 2009

Lets Get NASTY + Thin Blue Line






Well here is that start of another week. And on Monday, Oct 26, formally commences a HALF moon. Now some who deal with the public know full moons are fraught with all kinds of tumult, people wearing tinfoil hats etc. What most dont realize is that the dangerous ones are most stimulated during the waxing of the half moon to the full.
Welcome to the "weird world" but after what you have seen in the last 24 mo's little can surprise you.

So when I introduce the "THIN BLUE LINE" chart, you will nod your head as if you have instinctivly sensed it all along. Remember last year when Goldman Sachs reformulated the CRB Index to de-emphasize petroleum products? Well the CCI is the OLD index and still available for use. They "HEDONIZED" it but were not able to remove their tracks. So now along comes John Holt back in the 70's and puts out the VALUE LINE ARITHMETIC INDEX [ $VLE ]. It contains each stock weighted THE SAME.
So any of your stocks, divided by the cost of living, is typically represented on the "THIN BLUE LINE" chart. NOT A PRETTY PICTURE, but now you have proof. Lower Highs, Lower Lows. A Downtrend in a word, measured monthly and powerful. My expectation is that like Japan was stuck in the doldrums for X years, we might start by expecting value to oscillate 20some% above to 20some% below the THIN BLUE LINE.

OK so now what.

In the middle pix, Mr. Nasty looks none too good, plunging below its GREEN LINE, its upward momentum gone. On the upper panel, something else appears out of kilter and that would be that the SLOPE measurement CANNOT now climb above its 20 Day EMA.
CAPTAIN Namo also appears to be amongst the walking wounded but wills stage some sort of rebound as he nears the -50 Oversold ZONE. Whether it is a "Dead Cat Bounce" or "Hockey Puck Ricochet" remains to be seen, hence the need to keep your stops updated and within reasonable reach of the current market as you remember how market prices can take you down where you really dont want to sell if your stops are not close enuf.

What is clear is that certain select stocks are doing well. Primarily the ones I follow are associated with resources. Those companies whose developments bode for their eventual payoff's will do well whether energy or metals. A number of them are featured in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS Every week.

The one stock that can turn into a bomb will be featured this week on PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS.



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Part 2 Tactical Update FWR on WORDPRESSblog

some charts with a little different view

Link:

http://denaliguide.wordpress.com/

Part 1 Tacitcal Update FREEWEST

posted on
http://denaliguide.wordpress.com/2009/10/25/tactical-update-strategic-review-fwr-vs-not/

Hot link in link section

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Tactical Update, Strategic Review of FREEWEST

tomorrow, after a little more reflection. FREEWEST's Response is Due in the Mail on Wendesday so by Wendesday's market at the latest, we will have the market's view on FWR's stand, maybe sooner. When I do the review, we will be seeing what the TA may be saying to us. So far the TA is FWR 2, NOT 0, but its not halftime yet.

The other blog address is : http://denaliguide.wordpress.com/

and was updated today with some of the gladiators in this arena. Make no mistake, even though everyone couches their words in polite terms, and hides behind superficial manners, this is a place where one suffers losses akin to bodily harm and death, it is a fight for supremacy, and ruthless players have no scruples due to the high value of victory or defeat. Thus while everyone need not play in that manner, they at least need to protect themselves against unscrupulous behavior, and ruthless participants.

Freewest and corporate raiders

the story is here

http://denaliguide.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/fun-games-in-the-ring-of-fire/

Friday, October 23, 2009

FREEWEST : chat with Mac

Well lets see. Mac seemed confident almost to the point of being his lo-key self.
We touched on CLIFFS and Rob McEwen, but he did not let anything decisive slip to me.
CIBC is in fact still the advisor, and discussing the response to the offer, he indicated it would be mailed by Wendesday of this coming week, as required. While we talked about the impending NI 43-101, he said that a "Resource Announcement" would be forthcoming soon.

As we discussed the tonnnage in the James Bay ROF camp, I suggested that FREEWEST has half the tonnage under it's control and he laughed and asked me to "give me a break", indicating he thought the percentege controlled by FREEWEST was much higher.

Talking about ways, means and reasons for rejecting this spurious offer from Noront, as to stockholder value Mac pointed out that FREEWEST has the proven track record of discoveries and that this would not change. He agreed that the new 52 week high was a good indicator of the companies prospects and agreed when I suggested I thought the current stock position was unlikely to correct much beyond 45cents on this particular move.

So I'll be watching the stock's action, anticipating the response by Wendesday, and the forthcoming "Resource Announcement". I will look for a straightforward statement, with no misleading components as we so oft have seen from other outfits.
This company has earned a reputation for honesty and it continues.

Overall I found the chat positive and told Mac I was using it in this short post, as those following this stock wanted to hear something from him.

Personally I got into this stock for a 10 bagger a year and half ago, and nothing has changed my mind so far. IMO, anything below 50 is where I will look to get somemore for however little time it goes there.

Meanwhile Good Luck to all.

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Thursday, October 22, 2009

James Bay soap opera in the FLATS




The saga continues as FREEWEST [ FWR.V ; US Pink Sheets FWERF - OTC] stock posts strong formations in spite of declining market liquidity.

Cracks continue to open in the facade of Noront's already weak Stock Only hostile bid for 2/3's or more of FREEWEST's stock. At this point FREEWEST's is .53 cents, at the days high, while the best NOT's stock can do is 1.77, which translates to
a 20% discount reflecting the market's skepticism of the offer and continues to drive FREEWEST higher.

Distortions, misleading data, data omissions, half-truths are all deployed in attempts to get this offer into the RED ZONE but so far, it seems like 3rd Down and 10 yards to go for Noront, as FREEWEST has not even used their First String for Defense as yet.

My feeling is that since the miners were displaced from Noront by a hedge fund coup which we see often, like misguided Carl Ichan's, who are looking for a theft in order to make a qwk buck instead of the honest hard work it takes to create mineral reserves. Noront gets a thumbs down for that. Considering that Noront's stock has fallen from from the $7's in late 2007, and will have to break $3.00 to the upside to break its downtrend, I think they are in a lot of trouble.
The reverse appears to be true as FREEWEST develops its deposits of Chrome, PGM, and precious metals in its half of the James Bay Lowland Camp, as it is climbs back into price zones going back into 2006

The likelihood is that when they complete their NI 43-101 studies [ Canadian Truth-In-Mining Law mandated ][ compares apples with apples ], they would be unattainable by anyone but a major,and I think Noront hopes to snatch them before they can complete this, which by the day is becoming more and more unlikely.

We have long held positions in FREEWEST, having evaluated both years ago, and entered FWR seeing a good multi-Dollar upside target. Nothing has changed.

Good Luck, this is not for everyone but IMO has speculative potential.

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Developed Divergence leads 2 DROP




Well as the title premise states the developing divergence and loss of momentum by MR NASTY has portended a reversal of flow of fund, OUT of the Markets. and do except
for selected stock such as featured in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICK, and other exceptions like FREEWEST Resources of CANADA [ FWR.v, US Pink sheets FWERF ], fund are leaving the markets.

Longer term it appears as if the world will not end. Somehow all those billions of people in Asia who have been working their toes off, will not be denied their rewards

That does mean that a lot of bloom is gone from the growth of other sectors of the world or the charts would be off the scale for aggregate demand. We have polka - dot recession, prosperity, adversity, all over the place. Sectors are now global, and so people all over the globe will be feeling different things. GOOD sectors will prosper.

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Monday, October 19, 2009

Pretty pictures and a note




for those readers who were wondering, the US Pink Sheets Symbol for Inspiration is
IRMGF and for FREEWEST RESOURCES is FWERF.

You can find discussions and data about them on
http://www.stockhouse.com/
and the FREEWEST link to Agoracom is on the sidebar. Inspiration also has a board there also.

Thanks to all the true FREEWEST supporters, as I think Mac, FWR's CEO will clean the competition's clock due to his long experience, and crass "HEDGEFUND HeadSet" attitudes on the part of the "Business as Usual" approach Noront has used to try to obtain resources they could not get any other way.

Be prepared for alot of dissent and doubt thrown at you by others who have their own objectives. I find both stocks technically appealling and have positions in both.

Know when to Hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em

this is a serious must read for ANYONE in markets. Whether it is the Litany of Negative, The Gathering of Guru's, or the Torrents of Text, you must read and do this.

This is WHY Peak Performance Picks works, why and how you can profit. We are told to seek the light. I say, "B the Lite". Its that creative force within you that says
"YOU CAN DO THIS", when all around you doubt you. I say, your in charge so just do it.

Rather than reprinting it here as it is copyrighted, I present the link:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorn/2009/1016.html

This does NOT mean you dont DYODD in depth or have the best possible info, it means that ONCE you obtain these, then you drive on to your goal.

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Sunday, October 18, 2009

Fun & Games on the Muskeg . FWR = FWERF.pk



Well finally the "Moose Pasture" has really come up with something worthwhile called the "RING OF FIRE". Basically undiscovered by Americans, a little chess game is developing as Cleveland Cliff's will probably end up with the lion's share of the Chromite resource that FREEWEST RESOURCES of CANADA is developing. Hitting a new 52 week high, entering a new AROON Uptrend, and a new DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT UPTREND based on this weeks price activity. Volume activity was quite strong as it expanded with each uptick and declined in classic consolidation fashion as the stock backed off.

I got some inquiries about the US symbol and it is on the Pink Sheets as FWERF.
I am holding the stock as I have for the better part of the last two years after extensive DD awaiting the payoff from a lot of PGM, CHROME,and associated other minerals discovered. Do your own DUE DILIGENCE. My take is that the stock is one half way up the first leg of a "DISCOVERY PATTERN" and consolidating. For my shares, I expect a lot more than Noront's weak 4::1 all stock offer, so I'd not offer this as an idea for the wary. Given the risks, its a speculation, one I am in, so I will be watching. This is only part of the soap opera but if you dig a little deeper it might be interesting to some.
Meanwhile , take care

Friday, October 16, 2009

NASTY MOON RISING



Two differing timeframes SAME MESSAGE. I wont even bother you with the "GLOOMSDAY"
Scenario. Momentum is running out of acceleration, going into neutrality, and soon, IMO, to change trend. Surprising? No, not to you, if you read here, nor to me, as I watch it shift. Do I say hold your stops tight ?
Liquidity as we see it manifested, is rolling over, and each picture simply serves as confirmation for the others. I dont suggest that each is responsible for the other. What is going on here, is liquidity, funds, are leaving the market, either through destruction, as in going to pay off debts, or finding other places to hide assets. Either way, money is coming out of the markets faster than it is going in, and thus the tide is ebbing. It will return, but for now its ebbing.

PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS will help you enhance your capital, by keeping profits coming to you, whether or not funds leave the market.

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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Bonds look toppy, and CPT Namo did not cover




CPT Namo did not cover the amount of ground he usually does in a rebound. Optimism is everywhere........Not that I am a total skeptic, but as they say, "SHOW ME, DONT TELL ME ! ".

So its not my delusion that a number of popular indices look poised for a rebound, perhaps, however, rebound that it might be I'D BE HOLDING MY STOPS TIGHTLY, and PAYING ATTENTION. The SILLY SEASON for Earnings is HERE, and is double edged, considering that liquidity is driving this market and can turn tail and flee in an instant at the slightest sign of trouble.

I feel not unlike at a party on verge of my 4th drink, my field awareness dimmed, and it seems like everything is going GREAT and it is tomorrow morning and that is where my last recollection ended, just before my 4th drink ! ! ! WE HAVE PROFITS !
We will get to spend them, if we are aware enuf to keep them..........

Too early to be this crazy, but




but since a lot of folks are hungry for info, this is what I got on the FWR vs. NOT
deal going on in the "RING of FIRE" on the James Bay Lowlands. You might further compare the two companies charts, i.e. VISIBLE MATH, or GRAPHIC MARKET PLACE ASSESSMENTs, and ask youself, without too much interpretation, which one manifests energy, and which one looks tired, because the difference is readily apparent. In this situation, it appears that the first punch was clearly not a knockout, and actually was just enuf to energize the other parties. With PM's running the hot one they have going on, I'da expected Noront to have rallied more unless this is all they have going for them. If they exhaust themselves here, and their stock drops, they may end up acquired. Considering the spotty track record of their management effectiveness, that might not be bad.



Here is a some of what I posted on the NORONT Board at stockhouse today;
""
I was in on the original donnybrook when NOT first popped. and DROPPED. Basher trash all over, beatin them back into their cages with sticks a couple years ago....

FWR is kinda in that position today. Two differences. NOT really has a bunch of xxxx xxx hedgies running it, and FWR has a miner / engineer who has "been there, done that". No one, no one is worth their salt if they didnt see this coming. [ Betrayal is a normal business tactic !! ] A Certain Miner/Engineer/CEO has done it all, did the Helmo thing, and came out good. Therefore, before you get too crazy, ask yourself which company you'd rather own, as they stand today at these prices.

I been in on both and rather than Not being 4X greater than FWR, I'dsay FWR is 4X greater than NOT.v from a whole buncha perspectives. Cautious as the market might be, they have not caved to Not's offer,and from the nature of the bidding, might rather own FWR intact, andindpendent. And yes there is WINDFALL, the crapper that started it all........

IT kinda doesnt matter whether good ole Richart Nemsisname or thehedgies are running this outfit, they seem to make a good stroke andthen neutralize themselves with the next move. HOWEVER you can betthat there is now a lot of POSITIVE Publicity about the ROF. To me,even a year ago, FWR looked like a sleeper. I think the sleep is over.
If I had assessed NOT as having the same potential then, I'da got it, and not FWR.

CLIFFS has the hammer, the cash. NOT's deal is NEW SHARES, NOT.vlooks a little tired to me, and instread of real horsepower, there willbe more smoke and mirrors, IMO. FWR's next stop, technically looks tobe 80 cents, which of course if NOT holds its share price, would be a 2for 1 offer, which I also think will not succeed, but you got to admit,it is nice for FWR that they are expending all this effort and money instead of drilling more..........

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

OK folks, How about some FUN??


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South of Hudson's Bay, and west of James Bay in what is known now as the James Bay Lowlands, specifically McFauld's Lake a group of small minerals explorers have begun to outline the only chromite deposit in North America. Throw in a lot of Platinum Group minerals as well as Nickle, and you have the Black Thor, Big Daddy, Double Eagle etc, etc deposits. Quite interesting to the steel pellet producers and shippers to use in steel production and so on.

One of the companies featured by Jason Hommel some time ago, NORONT, was the first publicized with its find of DOUBLE EAGLE, which quickly morphed into a probably 10 mile long deposit. A lot of companies are in on it you have never heard of: Spider Resources, KWG, UC, Probe Mines, Norther Shield, etc etc etc.

Now due to their takeover by a predatory hedge fund [ thank you ], NORONT has got greedy and wants a hostile offer for the well financed explorer developer [ and their JV partner] at theft prices. FREEWEST RESOURCES [ FWR.v] probably controls HALF
the deposit and is [ was ] valued at 76 Mil [ CDN $$ ] vs. Noronts $240 Mil valuation

Simply put, FREEWEST controls probably 3 or 4 times the value that its Hostile bidder, Noront [ NOT.V] , and NOT.v wants to buy FREEWEST for 1/4 of its own value to gain 4X its value. Turned on its head, thats 16::1 in Noront's favor. Thats one helluva good deal for THEM, LOL.

But hey, no publicity is bad publicity. If it werent for the hostile bid for FREEWEST, it might further toil in obscurity for some time, until someone like Cleveland Cliffs swallowed them [ Cliffs has positions in FWR.v. also plus a few others ].

Hard to play in this group unless your Canadian or can access Canadian exchanges handily. I have been in this over a year, rode it down under 20 cents where the management and others scooped up huge quantities of it, also and then back up, so it will be an interesting play. Short term this whole group heats with the "Rare Earth" group, which was the NEXT BIG THING, some time ago. However this is so real, its "REALER than REAL" which will make it very interesting as the "elephants" starting trying to get a piece of the action. Observe, it might be interesting.

Subscribers will get a view.

FUN's fun, so here it comes



Mr.NASTY is at it again. The middle panel, CCI shows MR.NASTY coasting down into an oversold area as of yesterday. OH well we just HAD to rally, to accomodate that oversold level of cumulative advances and declines. So this is still a correction, but now its going a couple steps [ days ] at a time and then doing a pressure relief rally. OK, we can do that. Put your stops where you need them, make sure they raise cash for you, if a trend, short or intermediate turns around on you like a snake. There will be ample places to put that cash to work, at the right time.

In a nutshell, both those the drive liquidity and those seeing incipient signs of a recovery are driving this rally. Liquidity and inflation concerns are driving gold.

In the next post I will be a small spot you could look at if the cash needs a home, a small amount.

DG

Friday, October 2, 2009

The Tsunami rolls across markets


over the last year we have watched the trends roll around the globe with the earth's rotation. Asia was down 2.5% last night, Euroland 1.4% and the pre-market is down.
Again, stops and awareness will do the job for you. CAPT. Namo may decide to color within the lines and go a bit deeper oversold, which yet remains to be seen. Dont be surprised to see the CCI panel go a bit deeper, as it still can. As you have just seen in the OverBought category, extreme positions can stay extreme, to the level of irrationality even if it causes you anxiety, but they always revert to the mean.

If you get stopped out, understand your building cash for the next move, and no matter how scary this move, there will be a next move. Bigger, smaller, shorter, taller, weaker or stronger, for better or for worse there will be a next move and you will thus have cash to participate.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Now that's a correction !! SHOCK FACTOR 10.0 !




The SHOCK FACTOR today was 10.0 at its peak. Volume ended up down 4 to 1 as did Advances vs Declines. Bear vs Bull formations peaked at over 10.0 today. Thats as high as it gets in relative terms.

What is the GOLD line under Mr Nasty and what does it mean. When might a correction be climactic?

The Gold line is CAPT Namo. Basically a spread oscillator based on Mr. Nasty's component data, and as you can see by the top picture [ also CAPT. Namo], it is about as low as it goes. Thus some relief is in sight perhaps tomorrow, but it could be short lived. The COLOR FACTOR is even, indicating to me, that this is a breather, not the end. Using the Calendar to measure, we had an advance from Jul to Mid Sept. By most measures, half the time to correct would be about a month from when the first SHOCK FACTOR made its debut. The DOW could drop another 1000 points and not change the technical shape of the market trend if it re-bounded and later re-established its trend. Therefore, just when you thought it was safe, it wont be.
However you can count on some Counter-Move relief when CAPT.Namo gets in such an extreme position, positive or negative. Given all that, I am looking for some feeble pressure relief rally now, another dribble down, like dripping water torture, then another cascade mid-month, and finally exhaustion by the end of the month.

CRASH ? No everyone expects one. When did the melt down start last year? Coordinate those anniversaries and watch them ! Keep your powder dry and your stops tight.

This is a result of tighten liquidity and it is therefore taking everything denominated in currency down with the ebb of funds. Physical precious metals will be a buy when and where you can find them for sale in the quantities you can afford.
As derivatives, gold stocks, PM stocks and other precious metal stocks and indexes will decline as the liquidity ebbs away. Once you see MR.NASTY make the upturn, it is likely you will see liquidity flowing back into currency denominated markets.

Tight lines, dry powder and physical specie money are what ya want.










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