Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Correction, PZE reogranizes and does what is

basically a 2.5 to 1 reverse split. Technically a re-organization, this simply reflects that move. Of course, no one knew until the close today, more or less, so it was fun, but in fact a false alarm.

Lets talk about "Also-Ran's"

Well as I write this weeks review I realize that many of the issues that dont make it

into PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS are still of interested to a lot of readers.

Yes we are in a correction, yes its a weird and scary time. You could buy or sell the entire market with options or ETF's, and that can be a lot of fun or very painful, depending how you get into it. Here at PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS I buy long stocks for immediate performance. Now for my readers I list some of these stocks. They are NOT listed because they are poorly performing stocks, but primarily because their trend has turned up and is a bit too mature for my bottom picking tastes. Some of them are holds in my portfolio, with stops under them. Others have small things about them that make them perhaps not quite ready for inclusion this week. I present them for your interested and caution you both to DYODD,and excercise care in timing and acquiring any of them without some serious technical analysis.

To qualify even before I cut them, these stocks had to be working on bottoming out in support areas, with other positive technical features. My best advice here is to NOT CHASE them.

Here they are, in part:

Industrials & others: IGC, ALN, NGA, CPF, GRO, MOD, CHB, LEE, NTZ, SRI, XRX, LB, REV

ENERGY: LEI, VTG, PED, FTK, KOG, PDC, PUDA, LRT, ICO,

PM'S & Such : GBG, EXK, AGT, CGR, UXG, NGD, ANV, PLG

With a little luck and a little time I will put some charts up in links after my next letter goes out, featuring the ones that didnt make the cut.

Good Luck

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Speaking of Winners

Scanning this morning I noticed that PZE which was a #3 Gold Medal reco on 9/10
at $6.75, OPENED today at $ 17.29, and is trading in the 17-18 range. FWIW while I am attuned for news, which I have not yet ferreted out, any of you holding it must DYODD here to determine your course of action. Typically my rule is to "Sell the Spikes" but this may be something different than a spike, rather an offer to buy or something of that nature. In any case, A STOP BELOW THIS, as a Take Profit Point [ TPP ] is called for.

As I develop more news I will either carry it on the letter or send it out as a FLASH MESSAGE.

Meanwhile, Good Luck and Tight Lines.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Lets talk about winners


Toby Hansen, whose link you will find on the sidebar, publishes a fundamentally based quarterly review that I read due his honesty and skill in finding good stocks. I recommend you request a copy of it if you do not read it.

Further he carries reader recommendations which really cover a lot of ground. Whereas I use fundamental analysis to disqualify stocks, most of the stocks in the review are good stocks from a fundamental standpoint, and can be acquired well with market timing. In this regard I was really pleased to see that one of his readers had picked one of my earliest selections from a fundamental standpoint. I present his selection here, unedited and yes it is still amongst my picks yet today. If you dont get Toby's Review, I can only strongly suggest that you request a copy today !

We selected SandRidge Energy 7/16 for PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS @ $8.30, with a stop at $7.10. It may again be included in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS.

Occasionally, as in the case of SandRidge Energy, fundamental and technical analysis line up. We have been stopped out of it at least twice and are again looking at it for long term. From a trading standpoint, I'd consider picking it up in the area of $12 to 12.50 where it is now. Depending on your time frame and method, either the $11.00 or $10.00 region would be critical. Trading I'd use a $11.75 Stop [ close], and long term I'd use a $10.00 Stop. If your really long term and think candidates come along all the time, then you could wait to buy it $11.00, with the potential of not filling your order for awhile.

Again its about winners, so enjoy.

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Saturday, September 26, 2009

Nice pix of a nice stock, Canadian Nickle Developer







These images are for the Inspiration Mining Message board members from StockHouse, in order to share some of the potential upside targets that are being generated by ISM.To. As usual in stocks going someplace, there is professionally placed negativity on the public boards, attempting to negatively influence the stock for reasons that have been all to apparent to many of us. I selected this stock for specific accounts are part of my program for Canadian stocks, some of which will be featured on my next "CANADIAN SURVIVOR" edition. Please email me at "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" if you would like to receive a copy of the next published edition, coming out in October.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Mr Nasty n SHOCK FACTOR= SHORT SIGNAL?



Mr Nasty is probably the Ultimate Oscillator of the Breadth Arena, therefore it would be much like the House of Representatives, with PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION, whereas
SHOCK FACTOR is more like having Representatives from geographic areas, in this case, Volume Indicators, Price Indicators, TA Formations and so - on. They might not always be instep, but when they agree, things get done.

In the case of the pink line, which is the Standard & Poors 500 has turned down as Mr. Nasty is finding a crest, and its daily has fallen below its moving average.

I would not suggest this as a trading tool or backstop, but say that it confirms when a downturn is happening. Is this a short signal? Since I am not shorting as my primary tactic now, I would still say that this chart confirms a downturn. It also does not promise any longevity to the downside, but you play that out using STOPS.

The above chart is laid out to demonstrate the moves, but I would be careful to use it for any purposes other than confirming anything your researching.


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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Downside Shock Factor = 2.0




For your interest I include two charts. ONE of MR. Nasty and the two RED Markers that landmark two SHOCK FACTOR Days. The first is an Shock to the upside on May 26th, when the total number of Positive formations outnumbers the negative ones on a daily basis by a factor of 4::1. Note that the Upside Shock Factor 5/26 the Red marker line ends up in the OVERSOLD brown section of the Commodity Channel Index, a low area. At that time the DOW was 8200 about. Now move forward in time to Today, where the Red Marker line finds itself in the GREEN clearly overbought section of the Commodity Channel Index. Today the NEGATIVE SHOCK Factor was 2.00, or half the positive SHOCK Value of May, and the DOW Stands at 9900 to start off the day.

That was a 1700 point run after POSITIVE SHOCK FACTOR #1, with a value of plus 4.00.
Today we had a NEGATIVE SHOCK FACTOR with a value of negative 2.00 We had 1700 points up after the first one. My call would be based on that simple math of giving back up to half the gain. As with my BOTTOM CALL on March 9th, I will not make anything conditional. I call this a TOP, in all forms of measurement, and saw we entered the CORRECTION, not a crash, TODAY.

A quick look at liquidity says it also has topped and therefore, I expect the gold stocks, if not the metal to give ground in the same proportion. Therefore in combination with the General Market dropping, and liquidity falling, I expect the US Dollar to rise, as well, as potentially Interest Rates [ Interest Rates I will call conditionally for a rise, pending further DD on my part.

The market could waffle here a bit, but this is the top as far as I am concerned.
I will be tightening up my stops and only buying the most specific of issues, thinking Nat Gas here, but we shall see when PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS are published tomorrow.

Till then, keep your powder dry and your vigilance high.

DG

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Your Correction is read, NOW, Today

I will post the charts in a bit, but you can easily access some charts at

http://www.prometheusmi.com/pages/commentary/daily.php?Content=1100

Erik who runs it is a level headed guy who makes sense. Uses more words than me but that is OK.

TIGHTEN YOUR STOPS or just make your peace and cut loose of anything you dont really need. From what I see certain PM stocks did good today but over all they were not real impressive. What the FED said or did impacted virtually all sectors.

The action in the most sensitive indicators was as decisive to the downside for a CORRECTION, as it was to the upside in May for an UPTrend. By measure of amplitude I think we are in for a correction not a crash.

Subscribers will be getting SHORT ANSWER Details in their PPP Review, out tomorrow.

Film at 11 or something like that.

Tighten your stops.

DG

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

FrightMare on Wall Street. Not, not yet at least



Look at the above chart and ask yourself.....................

Meanwhile the smartest guy I know [ Guy # 1 ], who has called the best turns, managed to find himself upside down in 2008 by 20%, a heckuva comeupance for a guy who is so bright, so who is to gainsay anyone. Which is why I stick to the 2 day to 2 month time frame. My longer term winners just take care of theselves nicely and keep me from having to make decisions [ and mistakes concerning their trading][ makes them a good "Fire & Forget" type operation]. This works as long as I keep up my constant scanning.

Guy #1 helps me keep my sanity. Guy #2 gives me clues and insights

I just took the time to decipher some of the cryptic comments of Guy #2, one of favorite writers whom I consider one of the best short term callers out there. Funny tho, he calles markets and indexes well, but his individual picks dont seem to do as well. This writer does a lot of localized or short term projects, too many of which turn out to be on money, right on the nail. However, in deference to this persons skills and feelings, most of his acolytes dont hold his 'way off' projections to his face. No need, the guy is humble and knows he is human. Here is my interpretations of his latest comments:

" The 15th marks one high [ in gold][local high] from which there will be a pullback[again localized ], and a turnaround and reversal into a local upmove marked by the 24th of SEP. Again, a local pullback will occur in gold, based on US Dollar strength, and then strength will return and another upmove will create a double top
during the First week in October. Gold and stockmarkets will be moving in tandem.
Those are my projections."

Interpreting these paraphrased remarks, it looks like the moves are all one week or shorter. Hi in gold SEP 15, decline and another Hi SEP 24, Decline and another hi, this time marking a double top, First week in Oct. WEll that is either Thurs Oct 1 or Fri Oct 2, or could continue into the first FULL week in OCT. Given these inaccuracies and inconsistencies, almost seemingly programmed, if your playing this Intermediate to LONG TERM, well you tighten up your stops Starting Mon SEP 28, and let it run.

Since I am balanced Short, Med and Long term, I wont be making any moves based on this. I know so many of my readers want a roadmap like we all do, well here is a "strip map" from the best guy I know. No way I would attempt anything like these calls, but rather simply be in the stocks I like with proper stops. I have found this system works for me, and so stick with it, which is what how I created PEAK PERFOMANCE PICKS. No need to wonder where your profits are coming from, they are there in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS.

Good Luck

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Monday, September 14, 2009

Welcome to our FrightMare !



Well, no this is not"Elm Street", "Friday the 13th" and neither Jason or Freddie are here. Yet. So is it time to be scared?

YES ! Yes it is time to be afraid. Scared, but prepared. Gold cant make up your mind whether it wants to vault up over $USD 1,000, the DOW is where it was on 9/11, and generally everything seems OK, for the moment. The patches on the hull of the ship, i.e. USA and World Economy seem to be holding, and Scottie given us impulse power and the warp engine is expected to be online shortly. Expected, not guaranteed.

From 9 March to present is a credible Bull Run, albeit with lessening volume. To date, one can see and understand volume leakage, away from many of the measured markets. Certainly some former market participants have been traumatized if not ruined. They are no longer in the game. Funds have been taken off the table by big players and switched in to different asset classes. My guess is a small fraction of that, probably lo single digits have found their way into longer term physical investments.

What should I be scared of, afraid of, aware of ? Probably a correction. Dire predictions and warnings abound that "the end of the world as we know it", being right upon us. Well it is, probably in some small measure, that each day some part of our known life and culture passes away, but is replaced by something else. CHANGE.
Does that mean 8K on the DOW ? Perhaps? Gold @ 1500 $USD? Maybe. Rebound hi for the DOW 15K? Low for Gold $600? Probably not. This is the place that is the reason STOP LOSS or TAKE PROFIT Orders Exist. The experience is that if they order is too far under the stock, and a GAP DOWN occurs, you get taken out at the bottom of a correction. Better you carry a stop order at a percentage (%) below the current market, where MM's and Specialist and Desks arent looking when they go hunting for STOP ORDERS to trip off.

If folklore held true and was consistent, it would seem we get a correction rather than another market smash-down, because, in my observation, the correction is occurring amongst the same group that took us UP. Folklore has it that the two directions are led by two different groups, hence if this were a Change of Trend from Bull to Bear, a different group would be leading. FWIW, I adjust my stops and observe, and write PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, and take profits along the way. You could too.

If you'd like a free look at a recent issue of PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, please drop me an E-Mail request to: "denaliguide2@yahoo.com", and I will send you one of my previous issues.

Meanwhile, ready cash, dry powder, and good stops will be your best friends.

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Thursday, September 10, 2009

BIG picture, Little Picture, tired of FEAR - MONGERS ?







Here is Big PIX, MR. Nasty, little PIX UEC & HW
We live in the world, MACRO, we invest in stocks, MICRO, Big Picture, Little picture

Swiss bank flees US, due to taxation uncertainty. Yes Virgina, its bad. No Virgina, not THAT bad, Yet.

Each of us knows Our Own Big Picture. Family, Home, Kids, Car. Or something, Dog maybe. What we sometimes lose focus of is our little picture, checking account, credit cards, brokerage account, yet as in golf or football, the short game builds and supports the long game.

Now the truth so many are unprepared to see: Simplification creates sophistication.
Simplify your life and you can be bullet-proof, until the whole world falls into a heap. Just doesnt seem right does it? People think they must suffer complexity,
but NOT ! The most bullet-proof person I ever met was in a remote village way above the Arctic Circle. She was an older lady, a fur sewing person. Had a bag of fur parts. Everytime she needed "white-man-cash" she sewed up a few hats for people on her waiting list, got cash, buy what she need. No inflation, no currency fluctuations, Period. That was IT. Fini, End, No more.

Few of us can be quite that simple but her banking [ bag of fur parts] was sophistication in the extreme it was soooo simple. She kept her living expense below her income, had VALUE banked and had a Revenue Stream at her finger tips.
What can you simplify in this way, in your life? Do you have some physical, universally acceptable money banked? Do you have a secure revenue stream ?

The more you simplify, the less baggage you have, and since life rolls on like "OL' Man River", and our lives are like rivers, its easier to negotiate with less baggage.

No angst, just less baggage, no fear, just the Big and Little pictures.

Personally I have just had my fill of writers trying to make their messages so compelling that it is a life or death issue in the minds of their readers. So tiring.
Since the minds of my readers are important to me, I cannot think of messing with them in such a way because that in no way at all would ever help them. Do I sound too laid back ? Its because I have been taking my own advice, finally. So simply simplify your investing / speculating, and try a subscription to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS and see how simply you can profit. While God may be in the details, subscribe to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS and get the SHORT ANSWERS. Simplify, Because in PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, there Are NO Details, just profits ! ! !


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Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Lets see who did NOT make the cut tonite






Typically on any given day, I scan all the AMEX, and NYSE stocks for PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS in approximately 20 sub divided areas, to accumulate my quarter-final candidates for the Weekly Winners. Some weeks 5 days of scanning will yield me only 70 stocks.
This week, I gathered 145 stocks, had multiple tie entries for 4th, 6th and 10th places.

Today was scary in that it has made everyone relax as if this is a normal market.
ITS NOT. Let me say it again. ITS NOT A NORMAL Market. PERIOD.

Now who did NOT make the PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS Top 10 Stocks ? The following stocks DID Not, nor never have made the PEAK PERFORMANCE TOP 10 PICKS, yet: GSX ; CEP ; AWC ; PCS ; GXP ; NOG ; GU ; AHD ; GRO ; FSS. And yet they can be traded, BUT they have not clued me in that they are ready to run for YOU, Now !

Gold is down, the market is up. The market loves weak dollar, and gold goes with it to an extent.

What can you say about a market like this ? Gary Tanashian of Biiwi.blogspot.com summed it up best. It is about devaluation rally. The market loves a weak buck, so I think there will be a lotta lovin' to go around as far as Uncle Buck and the Big Apple Mkt is concerned. OK now we got that out of the way. Yes Gold vaulted over $1000 at least a half dozen times, hourly in the last 3 days. OK, now what? Goldbugs are euphoric 'cause "it did it !". And as Peggy Lee once sang, "Is that all there is........?"

Now lets move back to the premise of a devaluation rally. So everytime the buck goes down, gold and the general market go up. Good you say, or bad? Well step back.
Your stock goes up, good. Your stock goes down, bad. Pretty simple,sort of but not quite. The US Govt has either an active or passive policy of monetary neglect of the US Dollar's role as a store of value. A dollar today isnt your grandad's dollar.
Therefore, your total rate of return must outrun the depriciation of the currency you deal in.

So now scalp off 30% in two weeks. That's 750% or thereabouts a year. Seven and a half times your capital returned to you over 1 year. That is a 6%+ return that should offset any currency depriciations . That is why the above 10 stocks did NOT make the PEAK PICKS TOP 10 stocks. Some of them, one of them might do it for you, but I cannot make book, odds-on that will happen. I cant make book, odds-on that even the TOP 10 WILL do that for sure every time. HOWEVER I do make book on the fact that of every 4 Gold Medal Winners, 3 of them profit, 1 is a laggard, and at least One [ 1 ] of the weekly winners goes on for big and long term profits.

I am never sure which stock is 'The ONE', like "Neo" in the Matrix, but I do know for every group of TOP 10 Picks, your profit is in there. Given my methods, I KNOW that the TOP THREE contain certain winners. The ones I presented tonite have winners in them, but spotlighting them is a lot harder than finding the winners in the TOP 10 that go out tomorrow.
For me its about "Odds-on Probabilities [ House Bet], rather than "Might if your lucky".

Gold will have its day as will Nat Gas, Crude Oil and Aluminum, and whatever sector offers stocks ready to run, will find us there picking them.

Pick stocks, manage your portfolio, impose your 'stop loss limits' and 'take profit points', and as in football, discipline, discipline, discipline, and execute, execute, execute. Conjecture about the market after you take profits over a scotch, but buy and sell stocks. Know the market, trade stocks.

That's my rant for tonite.

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This is A Moment, maybe THE MOMENT, lets see



Ah yes nothing like the smell of napalm [ I mean Nat Gas ] in the morning !! Love to hear the rattle of those M-60's and the "thump, thump, thump" of the mortars.

Today I think they might be shooting Nat Gas rounds. Noticed that Compton Pete[CMZ], a primarily Nat Gas outfit from Calgary jumped up 23% yesterday, sooooooo I'd say, this is a SIGN, maybe a sign, not a STOP SIGN, not a YIELD, but a Be Aware. UNG showed up, and after a herculean pounding might be just what you want to look at. Early on PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS has positioned a number of Nat Gas issues as buys, so well, ya know for the cost of what ? Movie tickets, you can get your profits on with PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, but for now UNG is my gift to you all.

Ya'll have fun while I go back to my technical screening for my next PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS Letter tomorrow.

Back to your previously scheduled programming.

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Thursday, September 3, 2009

NOT Canadian Surivor. YET !


Actually Wesdome makes the survivor list handily, however it nicely illustrates the mathematical phenom known as "saturation" or "embedding".

As the price severely escalates upward, it rides the Upper Bollinger Band like a rocket on rails. When the momentum fades, it will drop out of this orbit. The Blue Bars support this "Rocket on Rails" phenom, as long as the WMS%R stays in in the Green.
Faltering by the GREEN or BLUE ares indicates impending momentum loss, hence it gets ready to "Drop out of orbit". Funny as it might sound, it is not Rocket Science, but rather "Visible Math".

Broadening Top developing a Problem NOW





Posting all the time, "Observe your Stops & Limits" all the time may seem "CRYING WOLF" at times, however, IMO, we are in for either a range shift [ up or down ] or a serious correction. Either way to protect yourself you could 1/ Strictly observe your Stop Limits, and on any Buys you have, strictly observe your Limit orders.

If you access PROMETHEUS INSIGHTS, you will see they have an excellent gold chart, known as the GCI, which has broken to the upside nicely. It is up to you whether you want to chase these gold stocks. My subscribers will be gettting an update on gold issues in this issue.

If you dont know where to place your stops, please use Up To 3 Standard Deviations, or if you want OUT of the market, use a 5% Trailing Stop Sell Order [ Scottrade is good at this ]. My standard practice is to use approximately a Stop Sell order at approximately 2 Standard Deviations below the current market price, to keep from being stopped out of stocks I like that are running. Stocks I dont care about get a 5% trailing stop order placed beneath them. If you have any doubts or issues with this, feel free either to leave a comment, or contact me and I will do my best to assist you.

This is your heads up for today, after which we will resume our regular broadcasting schedule. UP NEXT : Who wants to play SURVIOR ? CANADIAN SURVIVOR !

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Tuesday, September 1, 2009

A heads up for Gold Trackers



I just listed a link for the THREE [ 3 ] of GOLD on my sidebar, where you can go in and calculate a simple but effective little formula to evaluate the chances of gold making a run-up. Right now "COMMERCIALS" are short 211K contracts, and the bullish % of Materials stocks at 83% [ the GDM % is at 71% for those who prefer it ], the THREE PILLARS of GOLD is hobbled at a score of 4, two below what is needed for a minimum ticket into a Odds-On High Potential for a Gold Price Up-Move.

Erik at PMI had some exciting observations about gold [Link on Sidebar for PROMETHUS INSIGHTS], which portend things that may come. I mention this for a couple reasons, First of which, is that any timing here is necessarily inexact ;
second, that speculators often get all revved-up, anticipating a commodity move which may or may not happen, let alone in the time frame they expect.

I expect something is brewing, and as I watch the markets I am trying to figure a trip-wire that we can use to alert us when a move is truly triggered, that we can enter at an early stage. It might be the Gold Medal Winners on PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, and no doubt my subscribers will get in on it early, but I will do my best to post News You Can Use, While its still news HERE!

Right now, you all are aware that a strong Yen is very bad for the Japanese Stock Market, how bad, is that the Nikkei 225 is down almost 3% at the open, as the yen strengthens. A strong dollar is also bad for the US market, but a strong yen correlates strong gold. Worse yet is the potential to have 1/ the US Dollar going up at the same as ; 2/ Gold, which can also go up ; 3/ when the US Bonds go up ;
IF there is a PANIC. Once the liquidity dump and contraction is finished, out of the debris will come the gold stocks. HOWEVER, if you got KILLED going down in flames with the PM stocks, it will be that much harder to create a profit going back up the other side, so you may want to wait for Trip-Wire-Trigger, before you pull yours. Thats my take, right here, and right now.

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