Monday, August 31, 2009

Some I read for a little balance



Both the above image and the SYNOPSIS + OUTLOOK are reprinted with permission from PROMETHEUS MARKET INSIGHT Weekly Review. Its produced by a pretty smart guy who has a different take and timeframe on things than I do, and I like his stuff. Its not for short term trading,but one of the few people out there that wont kill you with words or leave you more confused than you started.

You can access his site at "www.prometheusmi.com, and off my link sidebar.

"Synopsis:
Oil closed slightly lower this week, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from early 2009. A double top may be in the process of forming, and unless prices can move appreciably above the recent high near $74 a reversal will become more likely.

Outlook:
A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from February and predict additional gains, while a break below uptrend support near $72 would forecast a retest of nearby congestion support at $60. Both scenarios remain equally likely. "

Have fun, I am liking this dip as a short term buying spree, but please observe your stops and limits, as we dont know how long any upside might last.

If I failed to mention it, Advantatge Energy [ AAV ]looks like its on its own trip, after converting from a trust to a straight corporate structure. DYODD, maybe it will be featured in a future issue for subscribers.

DG

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Certainly, to turn a point look at these two




Lets look at the Canadian Oil Patch. I picked up FEL.To 8/26 after a lengthy analysis and a lot of strategic and tactical considerations. I noticed the pinching together of the 20 & 50 DMA's, plus the short term Rating was 6.75 of 10, whereas in the current case, the score of AXL.To is 6.6. Both were way behind CLL.To, and PVE.Un or as the Americans say, PVX.

If we already didnt know, its come down to a schism btwn the have's and have not's as to finance and access to funds. Apparently the market is not only choosing whom they think is going to survive and prosper, but whoms else they think is shark bait.

The other issue here, is many of these smaller PRODUCERS are gas laden. Which no longer means they should go down, even if gas is hovering above some very low numbers. Drilling and capping off for future production is going to take a back seat to producing revenues, so that kind of thing will stop. Frac'ing is going to hell in a handbasket when they get thru regulating it, as it raises hell with ground water, no if's, and's or but's, and it will slow down considerable, from what I read on the public interest websites like Publica.org. If you doubt there is a future for gas producers, consult the NatGas index $XNG and you will see the producer stock prices turn up before the commodity prices.

So there is a little heads up for those trading NAT GAS stocks, and some of the Canadian readers checking out Energy Patch speculations. ONR.To, FEL.To, AXL.To, NGL.To, PVX and others are of note.

Good Luck,

DG


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Friday, August 28, 2009

CANADIAN Special Edition




THIS WEEK.

A. .LOONIE steady to higher.
B. .TSX taking a breather.
C. .Sector mix makes TSX less vulnerable

SHORT ANSWER:. Specific stocks in Energy
Services and production are strongest from underneath. Specific commodity stocks will gain strength from here.

CANADIANPEAK PICKS
TOP TEN
Picked from amongst all the TSX stocks buy rated , yet still in accumulation zones, for short term gains.
A perfect 10 Rating would indicate every factor I considered to be perfect, which can never be, LOL.

Symbol Rating


1 PVE.un 8.5

2 SGF 8.0

3 CLL 7.5

4 NGL 7.3

5 EFX.U 7.0

6 HTE.U 6.8

7 FEL 6.75

8 WTN 6.7

9 GLG 6.6

10 GBU 6.25


My Canadian STRONGEST STOCKS list, weighted for 30, 60 & 200 day periods are

SYMBOL Rank Potential

A GLG 10 5.
B WTN 9.3 6
C SGF 2.25

STOP LIMITS 28 Aug 2009
SYM Stop
PVE.Un 5.35
SGF .55
CLL .85
NGL 3.95
EFX.Un 9.25
HTE.Un 5.55
FEL 3.25
WTN 2.25
GLG 1.95
GBU 1.30


"WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GOLD NOW"

'reserved for subscribers'

Thanks to all our Canadian Readers..

This is a Special Edition to cover Canadian Stocks with immediate short term potential, PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS from the TSE.

Good Luck All.

DG

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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Here we go again, flip flop, + Mr Nasty & Cpt NAMO got something to say




Here we are again, Mr. Nasty and Cpt Namo scaring the horses with their silly behaviors. Watch CPT Namo give us a head fake, Mr. Nasty throw us a head fake, and the top will extend itself yet farther. While old projections show a top for this move, in past reviews at about 10,500 on the DJIA, current new projections show a potential about 1K higher, but they are merely projections, not assurances. I think the white space I showed on the chart of the WLSH on the previous post accurately pictures the time frame where this could take place.

As an added note, we upgraded the format of PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS to make it more readable and added the section "WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GOLD NOW".

Also for reader interest we posted a link to the 8/14 Portfolio on the website.

PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS major winner for last week was ENTREE GOLD, with major holdings in Mongolia, that surged from the 1.30-1.40 range to a high of 2.48 this week, basically a 100% gain in 5 days, due to the repeal of the "windfall profits tax" on mining entities in Mongolia. While this is a difficult stock to get in due thin number of shares out, it was possible to get an entry below 1.40. Good luck to those who got aboard.

I expect the market to continue to broadening its top, until we have everyone partying so hard they forget they are dancing on the edge of a cliff, and we can watch the bulls jump off a cliff of euphoria. Have fun, Party hard, and mind your limits and keep your stops tight and disciplined.

Why extended tops are important


Yes this is an extended top, IMO. As you can see, the advance has moved up smartly from Mar 9, 2009. Pretty historic when you look at the data, nice buys to be had, nice runs. Some have already shot all their ammo and are declining under the smoke screen of the rest rising.

Extended tops are important, as they allow all the stocks that could move up to synchronize at the top, so when a serious "wet your pants" downmove materializes as a correction or breaks the back of a bull move, the devastation is total, no sector is left untouched and all the Talking Heads freak out and tell everyone to sell everything. During that momentary panic, everything is sacrificed, there is no safe haven. You see the white space I left on the chart for your eye to fill in the moves. I will put Mr Nasty up for you to see, in another post, so you can see the dynamic. Its one of those "Just when you feel safe" moments that we will experience when the market turns down.

Classical economic theory says the markets anticipate conditions by 6 - 9 months. Thereby all the bad news that you hear now is already baked in, and the moves you see here, are short term waves, rather than long term effects, IMO. Then, we will be speculating on what bad things could come our way.

For subscribers and everyone else for that matter, I say, participate in the up side for as long as you can, BUT MIND YOUR STOPS AND LIMITS. That way you can profit with a clear head, and no excess of concern ! Gold and gold stocks will be an exceptions over a different time frame, but if the liquidity becomes an issue, the gold miners like all stocks, will take the hit.

A simple cautionary note: Protect yourself, routinely by assuring yourself the items required by the affairs of daily living. That includes paper money, some specie metals, and the necessities of food, clothing, shelter and transportation

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Thursday, August 20, 2009

As we go into Friday, Mr. Nasty is


flopping on the deck like a mackerel fresh out of the Atlantic, with Captain Namo swinging the rudder from Minus to Plus in a second and a half, pitching and yawing front to back so everyone is seasick.

While I will publish a nice list of PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS before the open tomorrow, and the updated stops for all previous GOLD MEDALS, I recommend that all stock long positions carry a stop sell limit no more than 1 Standard Deviation below the current price, or 7% below this months high, which ever is lower. Again, the market is acting like it is trying to go up but has its mind changed against its will, almost a "Manchurian Candidate", if you remember the movie. I think the name is appropriate.

Mr. Nasty and Captain NAMO have that downward bias, so I will roll with that......Gold and Gold Stocks are trying to roll down with it, even as liquidity drains away......but acting as if they are getting a shove upward from something.
Everyone is acting twitchy, and the Nikkei just opened down hard, so lets see what happens, and keep the STOPS in place.

More later.........as they say, "film at 11".

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Monday, August 17, 2009

Asian Market up fractionally

so tomorrow, depending on how Euroland fares, we might get a breather.

TALLY HO, says Mr. Nasty



Well, we ARE off to the races ! ! ! Declines outran advances 5 to 1, fairly decisive.
Mr.Nasty's cousin, Captain NAMO is about to run aground, at which time the rout may halt for a breather. I am NOT counting downside objectives at this point, rather watching and waiting on the weather and the waves and other internal clues as to how the scenario will play out.

True to form with the Liquidity Curve, Gold and Gold Stocks are following it down, like a snowboarder riding a rail, as they start to cling tight to the lower Bollinger Band Border. Do the math yourself and you see that no matter what this is considered, Bear or Bull Market, it has a ways to run and will take a breather or two along the way. For those of you who do such calculations, it makes a fine guessing game, along with "Catch the Falling Knives/Swords/Rocks", and some lucky person will guess the right combo of Fibonacci Numbers, Ellliot Waves and moon phases. Probably the rest who play will get a bit bloodied.........

Meanwhile, Ya'll fight nice, no ear - biting or eye gouging. Remember its all fun and games until someone loses and eye and then its SPORT !!!

Mind your Stops and Take Profit Points.

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Lets see if this makes sense


The Hang Seng, and Nikkei are down 2.5% or more Sunday Night, and liquidity as we know it to be, is in the lead in downward motion. In this case, the above picture is probably worth 10t to 20K words from guru's recapping the action and explaining why their point of view is right.

Bottom line, market is in downward motion. Mr. Nasty says so. Liquidity says so.
SHORT ANSWERS. Basically any questions seem to me, to be handily resolved by observing the Liquidity Curve posted above.

It seems that the trend in uranium stocks is in suspense. The only group that is overp-represented amongst the technical scans is some small copper stocks, but then that is what PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS is all about. Likely the gold price, and gold stocks will go in direct correlation to the Liquidity Curve, as well as the general stock market. Basically all three are joined at the hip. US Govt Bonds are neither indicating panic or hyperinflation, so we will probably find some normality in a basic correction of the Rally from Mar 9 forward, including the recent rise from July 6. Each one of these moves has contributed significant winners, of 25-50% in 2-4 weeks, which, compared to the general market, is robust. Distribution of the winners were fairly obscure stocks within specific energy and metals groupings.
This weeks picks showed the same pattern. Energy infrastructure, and marginal energy processors and producers placed a few candidates within the current group.

Due to the current downdraft "in-motion", any potential acquisitions, this week, need to be approached conservatively and with discipline.

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Saturday, August 15, 2009

Who ya gonna believe ? THE FAT LADY




Well there it is folx. Mr. Nasty speaks volumes. Note that we enjoyed a 16 market day up-move previous to Mr. Nasty's beginning yo-yo moves. Again, note that the last down move was 8 market days.

So why worry who to believe? Steve Swenlin of Decision Point says its a BULL Market.
Dan Sullivan who was a bull is now a bear. Jimmy Rogers is a bear, George Soros is a bull. This is why guru's kill, and how they kill with words. If you can make any sense of this Tsunami of Text, well hats off to ya !! I could never arrive at a conclusive opinion reading this stuff. For instance, Jim Willie, thinks the Chinese have the US by the throat financially, while George Soro's thinks the Chinese are a positive force in markets. Very hard to make sense of all the fundamental and text based information.

BUT THE FAT LADY aka, MR NASTY HAS THE LAST WORD

For a week, its been a broadening top. [ A ]; Of a Bear Market Rally? [ B ]; Of a Bull Market Rally ? [ C ]; Of an Intermediate Up Move ? THE FAT LADY DOESNT CARE!

What can you do ?

YOU fight the DEFLATION in Your Assets with winners like Sandridge Energy, up 49.6% in a calendar month!! And GMK, no one's ever heard of, simply the largest grain and tortilla merchant of Mexico, up 54% in 3 weeks. Both Gold Medalists in July, as unknowns reversing trends in a lo-risk entry support zone.
Two of the Gold Medal Picks, they are part of the 92% win ratio for PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS.

I will go my way watching the indicators, volume, price, breadth, attempt to find what position the market's in, what trend's developing there, and finding vehicles to use for profit.


On the TOP chart, the purple line is the Cumulative NYSE advances - declines. ALL THE OTHER LINES are volume and they blipped and confirmed a short term buy, but they are now declining, so I say hold your winners, be aware of your stops and buy limits.

Given the 20+ technical indicators PEAK PERFORMANCE uses either singly or in combination, PEAK PERFORMANCE will continue to provide GOLD MEDAL Class winners like SD and GMK just to name two. Check it out, there is no need for any other.

Gold, monetary and precious metals stocks and prices will be covered in another post.

Best,

DG


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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Everyone comfy? Fat Lady is up next [ FED ]



now we all KNOW it not over till the FAT LADY sings, as in the opera.

If the FED is the FAT LADY, then she sings today.

Both pictures above are full of upside energy and entering an area where they assume "weightlessness" like the early experiments in a C-130 Herc doing a ZERO-G move. This suggests, to me, using basic approach that if we had 16+ Market Days UP, and we would be likely to get a correction, such a correction could, in normal times, be as long as 8 Market Day IF the trend will continue. Therefore, my idea here is that stock market prices are at the top of a ZERO-G loop and vulnerable.

Just how vulnerable is demonstrated to me by how comfortable I feel with my profits. The last time I was this comfortable, I got ambushed by a 30% drop in my primary property.

So if your feeling complacent and comfortable, again, maybe its time to adjust your STOPS upwards, as complacency is the name of the last turn before AMBUSH.

Sufficiently concerned, I probably wont even publish some of my "Also-Ran's" or my semifinalists for today but rather hold them to see what happens.

I have my opinion about the stock market's reaction to the FED, but that is AN OPINION.

Gold and gold stock prices will be another issue to see what and if, what decouples from whom or not. Again, in either circumstance, Buy Limits and STOP SELL Orders are where we take our comfort.

Good Luck

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While we are talking stocks and stock markets

two stocks that DID NOT make the short list for Tuesday are IVN and DAR.

Gold and gold stocks are not of concern to me just yet, but are under watch.

More tomorrow. I like these two stocks in general but as yet the timing is not there.

Good Luck,

DG

Monday, August 10, 2009

OK, lets have a little fun

who did not make this AM's short list. Here we go, a bunch of stocks that DID not pass the 3 final filters:

AZK ; GU ; HTE/Un.To ; TIV ; CMZ ; CPE ; WNR ; APL ; ODP ; HH ; MRT ; CKR ; OFI ; ATV; AEN.To ; PZG.To ; OPC.TO ; MGA.To ; KDX.to AZC. To ; CBR. Nor bad stocks, picked for technical merit, just that they did not have it ALL together in one place at one time. Today's picks are semi-finalists, and will be included in determining the Gold Medal Winners for PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS WEEKL WINNERS. Between now and then a lot wil change and we will pick up lots more to screen and filter thru, until we find a roster that will profit you short term, with entry and stop limits. No talk, no yak, just clear concise profitable picks. Last I looked our winner % was well above 80something%, and profits were to be had, depending on where you decided to try it out. Later this week I will publish some of the recent weeks picks to the website and link it here.

Good Luck.

DG

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Thereby "Hang"'s a tale


or a tale be told by the Nikkei. Hang Seng or Nikkei, its one place I look [ ASIA ] to get the feel of money flowing into or out of equities. Right now the Nikkei is up 1.25% and the Hang Seng up 2%, so we shall see what EuroLand does in the early AM when the flow of cash washes over them in a couple hours.

I will continue to engage the long side of the market until it tells me I should let go. Do I think this is a BULL market or a market of BULL ? Frankly I dont know. All I know is what my indicators show me and that is equities, generally rising from an inflow of cash, maybe like the "CHINA SYNDROME" I wrote about earlier. Some of the equities up moves look tired, but there is rotation going on amongst them, so it is a "WAIT 'n SEE" basis upon which I am working. Yes I have no faith and am skeptical.
I am also currently on the correct side of this market, at least for now.

Some of the stocks I DID NOT select last week, for Finalists, were:

ROY ; ODP ; GNA, and ZLC. They did however get Honorable Mention in the Mid-Week survey.

As you can see, Mr. Nasty is showing fatigue and a little self doubt, but still UP, so we are still IN, for now, at least.

My thought here is to observe stops in a disciplined manner, and if you feel threatened, tighten them until your comfortable. Lots more candidates, every week.

Subscribe to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS and you'll see what I mean.

Best of Luck

DG

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Sunday, August 9, 2009

ENJOYING YOURSELF

When your reading this, its possible your thinking about your future.

Fear not pilgrim. We constantly read the "Doom & Gloomers". Frankly they drive me a little bit around the bend. To be sure, good and bad things will happen to us, our families, our regions and our countries because life is dynamic. We have the choice if we are going to be happy. Making a conscious choice to be happy is dynamic and will impact all manner of others around you. Truly you will never know in advance, whose life you may touch, making a decision to enjoy your life. Further it is a win win situation, with nothing to lose but the blues. A touch of melancholy is helpful in artistic enterprises, I am told by talented artists, but I must agree when THEY say its never good to carry these negative emotions past bedtime.

Find those things you enjoy. Find a quiet space in yourself, find a quiet place, and enjoy your life.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Mr Nasty's latest mugshot




Mr Nasty in two perspectives. Note our little Run-Up is about 3 wks long. Quite like the little Drop-Out move of Feb-Mar of this year. Similar in slope and duration.
Does this mean Mr. Nasty is showing us a Great Big Drop, akin but mirror to the Great Big Run-Up of Mar to May of this year? "Well I tell ya what....." as Hank Hill is prone to say: " I dont know...." -> thats me speaking, not one of the cast of "King of the Hill". However that said, I am standing "Bear Guard" during all market hours, until I see if the Bull is just that, BS, or will it really climb the corral walls and run. Lots and lots of data suggests bad things will happen, but the Technically Derived Internal Markets Data tells me the markets want to run up,
so I have to listen and heed it or get run over. This Data is for you, and therefore, as in previous posts, I dont suggest optimism, I recommend "AWARENESS".

Good Luck

DG

Published PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS in a

new format, details emailed to subscribers.

What stands out here, in the most recent analysis, is the strength of select PM and Uranium stocks. Not across the board, but specific issues. Not even all of the
"7 LUCKIEST GOLD STOCKS" were involved, altho some were. A couple of "USUAL SUSPECTS" were in fact, there, but a number of new faces as well.

Both Mr. Nasty and the North American Most Active LeaderBoard showed a decline, with
"Insane Volume of 2.7 Billion shares of "Citi" [ C ] topping the list as the financials continued bulling their way to the top, as a counterweight. Probably they will temper a decline here, but I continue on my "Bear Watch" as this untried bull move attempts to climb a wall of worry.

What I do here, is observe my buying limits and stops. Being paralyzed will make you no money. Even if you choose cash, its an ACTIVE CHOICE, so being pro-active in your own behalf is where the action is. Stocks continue to move, and may you find the ones that are right for you.

Later today I will publish the Stop and Adjustment Update for the last dozen PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS thru my subscribers E-mail link.

If you wish to participate in moves as we now how underway with stocks in-play, you may wish to become familiar with your brokerages facilities to offer you
"Trailing Sell Orders" or "Conditional Orders", in order to work more easily amongst
the current volatile and sudden market moves.

Good Luck

DG

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Thursday, August 6, 2009

Canadian Readers

some shift occurred in markets that caused a huge % of my PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS to be Canadian Stocks.

I posted them in my private blog, shown in the Links section here, with the PASSWORD "CANADA" to get you into that post.

it was a strange occurance, but I suspect we will see the reflection and manifestation of whatever caused this shift, in moves to come.

Good Luck

DG

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Driving Miss Crazy ?

So we dont know the WHAT. We dont know WHAT is driving this market. True to form, the markets moved in unexpected ways upon the Bradley Turn date of Jul 14-15, and the rally commenced to get energy underneath it. We dont even care what is driving this market. We know it WILL have corrections, perhaps even soon, BUT I have not seen these to be of any real consequence, YET....

The real importance of what took place is the the markets went UP, in the face of everyone guessing where we were / are in the New Depression, leaving everyone scratching their heads and looking for WHY's.

So WHAT IS NEXT ?? Truly, the USA has lots of debt to float, lots of it. Does that mean it wont or it cant be done?? Unlikely. Will it be done without consequuences ? Do we know what those consequences will be ? Unlikely.

Lets work with what we know : We are in the midst of a wrenching financial crises and re-adjustment. As badly as the banking and credit sectors tried to shut down, they were forced open like a quahog is opened with a clam-knife. Bullies, statists, autocrats, call em what you like, they forced the system to work, however poorly it worked. This set of markets is going to fluctuate. As subscribers to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS know, there are new selections every week that appreciate.

This is NOT your parent's market. Intermediate trends might last a week, or not. Hitting a daily selection for 10-20% is the market of recent markets and their volatility. My view here is critical analysis, severe culling, and selections with technical merit will profit us all well, as long as we maintain our discipline of Price Limits and Stop Limit orders. I know that is not very philosophical, but it is how we will make money.

We may, in retrospect, know what drove these events, but our first task is to survive, second to prosper, and eventually to understand.



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Sunday, August 2, 2009

Which Way? What to do ?


Last post I capped off with: "Here as in most other situations, some cash, sensitivity, awareness, Stop Orders and Order Limits are your most important tools. Objectivity in the way you use them will serve you well."

Now lets look a the potential for the markets to roll over and fool everyone.

A quick glance at COMPQ will show MACD [ bottom panel ] getting tired or carrying the momentum up, the Stochastic's in oversold territory, looking as if they want to exit downward, and the price candles have moved off the top track of the Bollinger Bands. Yes this is super - technical, and no I dont have a word to say about Earnings, Cramer, Big Ben or the OB. Simply, Mr. Nasty's cousin, COMPQ is looking tired.

So now what to do? Remember this is about PRE-VIEW, not Re-View, so lets find a good course of action here, now.

If the rally continues after a reasonable breather, all well and good.

If the rally aborts and turns into a rout, we must avoid $$ Damage.

If the market as a whole, marks time, we still want to be in our positions.

SOOOOO - as a plan, we refresh and adjust our STOPS, to either a cautious position that takes us "out of play" in short order, or we adapt a bit bolder stance and stick with our original stops, adjusted as part of our game plan.

Even if we get stopped out, as readers of PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS know, there are excellent vehicles along every week, and so there will be no lack of mounts for us to ride.
If we get stopped out, we are in CASH, and can use that as a hammer, leverage to get what we want done.

Subscribers will get their Refreshed and Adjusted stops before Monday's market, and will be able to take advantage of them.

Non-subscribers can take a look at some issues I have followed in the past, with their current basic stops and take their cue as to what they might wish to do from them. The follow here, the symbol then the stop in US Dollars :

AAUK 14.15 ;
AZK 3.46 ;
DHT 4.50 ;
DNN 1.48 ;
GAB 4.50 ;
HRZ 4.00 ;
IAG 9.95 .


So we adjust our stops, and see what happens. I really dont have the willingness to presume I know what the market is GOING TO DO. I do have faith in my ability to interpret what it is DOING NOW, and make my decisions based on potential outcomes.
Any reader wishing to be a bit more cautious with their stops can simply move their adjusted stop up half the distance from the example above.

Good Luck

DG

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