Thursday, July 30, 2009

Objectivity now






Generations of gloom, doom, fear and loathing have dominated the Hard Money / Gold Sympathizer FINANCIAL PRESS, pretty much assuring less than an objective view,to their own detriment. Not undeserved, but rather, well earned by less than transparent monetary maneuvers by the governmental monetary authorities, it generates suspicion.

Therefore, you find yourself flooded with waves from either the CRAMER ( another GOLDMAN SACHS alumni) and KUDLOW, et al, cheerleading Wall Street's moves, or the GATA/GOLD COMMITTEE Partisans, to whom all truth must be coated in Precious Metals.

This is an ugly and confusing situation, for as long as I have known it.

Lacking any workable model of crystal ball, I accepted the "Weight of the Evidence" approach long ago, to help me shut out all the noise. I would like to share a few pieces of the current evidence with you now, in the charts above.

On the 3 1/2 yr chart of $USB [ 30 yrs US Bonds ] you see relative stability until the Autumn of 2008 when Investors globally acted in a virtual stampede for safety, pushing the US 30 yr to record levels. That was a clear recognition that the safest place to temporarily park funds was in US Govt Securities. From then, to now, the US Bonds have declined to more stable Post-Panic levels. We are relatively stable for now. That is exhibit ONE in evidence.

Above the first chart [ of US Bonds ], you find Exhibit TWO, the volume representation of the Wilshire 5000 Index. While the WLSH is not exactly unweighted, it is representative and the volume IS turning UP, which is a condition I need to satisify before I think a move is valid.

First in line, but last on my evidence list is our old usual suspect, Mr. Nasty.
Clearly Mr. Nasty thinks that early May was a peak for Breadth action, and also sees mid July as a low for the same measure. The measure here still has slowing momentum up, and looks to show this as a peak, but wanting to go lower.

Therefore, simply looking at these three measures makes a case for fluctuation, with the best guess at the US successfully selling its debt, liquidity being diminished by one side and increased by another, leading to a stalemate, manifested by fluctuating market price levels. Right now there are no signs manifest of a panic in either direction, which of course could change in a heartbeat.

Here as in most other situations, some cash, sensitivity, awareness, Stop Orders and Order Limits are your most important tools. Objectivity in the way you use them will serve you well.

DG

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Monday, July 27, 2009

OK lets play nice. Beating the FREAQers !!

Notice I didnt say "PLAY FAIR". We never need to stoop to the tactics of the enemy in order to defeat them, we can use our perception, our powers of understanding, to beat them. As in the "Karate Kid", your "FORCE" is simply their energy re-channelled.

Therefore like Pat Morita taught "The Kid" in his "Wax ON, Wax OFF" routine, its the basic's and discipline. Leave catching a fly with chopsticks to the FREAKS, if you follow the logic in the Hi-Frequency Trading pattern, you can see its logical flaw, for it if makes prices go RiGHT UP TO THE LIMIT, and makes it move in an EXTREME MANNER, they you know it has exxagerated or accelerated the move. Now, you can place that piece knowledge in with your other tools TO MAKE YOU MONEY.

What we do, is as simple or complex as we make it. Therefore, your understanding of the basics, not a technical twist or trick, will work.

In this case, there is a HUMAN at the wheel, and so "algo's, "Quants", "Black Boxes", in the paraphrase of Admiral Farragut, "Technical Tricks be damned, human's full speed ahead ! ! ! ". In a more ZEN fashion, use your human nature foil what is not human.

To recap: FREAQ's cause price acceleration and exageration To A Point, WHICH COULD BE UP OR DOWN ! Knowing that, act accordingly.

DG

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Sunday, July 26, 2009

Last Week's Portfolio on website

is now linked under "AAAA Last Weeks Porfolio" in the links section, found by sliding down the right hand side-bar.

Each week I will post the previous week's results.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

TIGER Riding, anyone ? Last weeks PEAK PICKS


With NONE of my cautions lifted, I say, if you want to ride this tiger, you are now getting volume confirmations as well as Mr.Nasty validating the first part of this move.

While its not surprising, you can look back and see the MAJOR BRADLEY TURN DATE, of July 14-15 in the crook of this V up-turn. Playing this upturn may be dangerous, but Price, Volume and Breadth are now in positive correlation to each other.

Last weeks PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS Gold Medalists acquit themselves well, with 19%. 19% and 26% returns in 9 market days. The surprise winner was HRZ with a move from $3.61 to $5.35 in those 9 days, most of it in the past three days of this week. While that is a 75% gain in 9 days, that is never my expectation, nor do I like to see crazy claims like that. It happened and IT WAS GOOD ! !
Accuracy was 83%, 10 of 12 picks, over all, and 100% in the Gold Medalists.

For your interest, the picks for last week were, SD, EGY, GMK, FRG, CKR, TSM, CYD, MVG, UMC, HRZ, DEJ, KGN, in descending order of preference.

This coming week's PEAK PERFORMANCE PICK are yet to be selected, as we see how the GOLD MEDAL WINNERS will fare this week.

If you think your portfolio could have benefited by an overall 20% return on a "FULL SPREAD" selection of ourlast week's Gold Medal Winners, please consider signing up for our Introductory Offer, listed on the sidebar. Its a lot better for you than a Big Mac, IMO, and I like Big Mac's, LOL.

Good Luck All





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Hi Frequency Trading crap, another reason

for WEAR BLACK MONDAYS.


We noted trades moving weird,and this is no doubt the reason. All the more reason for capturing reversals "In-Motion", to frustrate these guys and their attempts to screw everyone, IMO.

PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS proved its worth last week as subscribers got the jump with the THREE Gold Medal Winners.

DG

Friday, July 24, 2009

WEAR BLACK MONDAYS ! ! !

so many causes, less universal than SANITY have dedicated days to their cause.

In Canada, Wear RED Fridays, commemorate the troops sacrifice and tell people that the families are supported.

Now that people are aware of the fraud that have gone on as part of the monetary authorities involvement with other non-govt financial entities, time may well be right for PEOPLE ACTION. Read the below from Investor Village:
sg 27529 of 27533 at 7/24/2009 8:55:39 AM by

bbbeijing
FED con-plan starting to fall through?
The people's representatives are gradually seeing through the FED con-plan ..


SEC, FDIC heads want new council to be supercop
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul_regulators

<< Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the committee's senior Republican, said expanding the Fed's powers as called for in the administration's plan "could be very dangerous" and "inconsistent with the principles of democratic government."
A number of lawmakers of both parties insist that the Fed failed to prevent the economic crisis and shouldn't be entrusted with more responsibility but should stay focused on its primary duty of setting monetary policy.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate panel Wednesday that he doesn't believe the central bank's role under the administration's proposal would be "radically different" than its current one.>>

-------------------------------------------
I think these three paragraphs sum it up quite nicely.
Heli-Ben plays dum ... the administration's proposal is just more of the ole same ..
Of course he is right.. the FED's role is THAT BAD already for decades leading up to the current mess.

So why take away the can from Ben now, where Alan was allowed to play with it for 2 decades?
Ben deserves an Oscar for honesty if those were ever to be awarded for parliamentary plays.

JMHO, bbb


/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I copy that post here, for everyone that reads this blog, is touched by all the financial fraud that has put everyone but the super-rich in a deep deep hole.
If you are moved by it, there could be BLOGS after BLOGS documenting it, a FACEBOOK page organizing it, and CONTACT Campaigns putting the word out TO CHANGE THINGS while the public and media are paying attention.

WEAR BLACK MONDAYS is a protest from THE PEOPLE, to Stop the Fraud and Looting and START the PROSECUTIONS.

My friend MONTY HIGH, who publishes WORLD OF WALLSTREET blog has just such a bumper sticker and maybe its time to start paying attention to his idea also.

Anyway that is my philosophical blast for today. WE all SUFFER, so we are all RESPONSIBLE, so perhaps we all should RESPOND. My view is that if your the one to get hurt, your RESPONSIBLE to RESPOND ! !

DG

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Thursday, July 23, 2009

and WHOM is complicit in this?





The top image is direct from the Stockcharts Blog. Looks pretty good doesnt it ?

That is UNTIL you see that the volume has been dropping since the rally started.

Gee I wonder what that means? Maybe I dont know what it means, but I DONT LIKE IT AT ALL. I may ride the tiger, on the way up, but that doesnt mean I think its a BULL RIDE. I think its more like a bear market rally.

Fun is Fun but care is called for, here.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Pedal Faster ! ! ! Older Whiskey, Faster Horses, etc




Pretty much the VLE Wedge resembles the GOLD wedge which presaged GOLD dropping to $USD 680 last fall.

Wedges are, IMO, reliable in that respect, and they dont really get the respect they need. So yes I am concerned about the screwy markets here. VLE is unweighted and pretty broad, so I would expect the LACK of synchronization among Breadth, Volume and Price will resolve to the downside.

Continuing to LIQUIFY the economy with Money & Credit Injections will buoy markets for awhile but have some undesirable effects that will eventually cause the very markets they liquify to breakdown. That is the reason I think we see the divergence btwn Volume, Breadth and Price.

Updated the STP LIMIT prices on CPX, SD, CYD, QTM, PZE, EGY, GCI, SSP, GMK, FRG, on
PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS. We shall see what gets HIT ! ! !

Some of the issues covered thru the screening process have been ZQK, RRI, LVS, NOG, PQ, HRZ, CNO, SGI, BEE, MDW, GGR, CT, CFP.To, FEL.To, WEE.V, TSM, UMC, SLV, TGA, MFN, AZC, CKR, CZZ, DNN, EGO, SWC, KOG. Some of these have yet potential.

For the price of a Big Mac, you can Test Drive PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS and see for yourself, and your peace of mind and your portfolio is worth it.

Instead of reading FORTY PAGES of text, you get Plain Talk, no weasel words, and ACTIONABLE PICKS, and a margin of safety. Take a bite out the market for yourself !

Whatever your doing, have a great day ! !

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

REDEUX Summer 2008





WOO WHOOOO, Mr. Nasty's "GET UP & GO" is getting a head start ! !

I WONT say MACD doesnt lie, HOWEVER when Mr. Nasty speaks, I heed the message.

Three issues I have NOT listed on PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, for various deficiencies, but perhaps some to be looked spanning the sectors, would be CT, WEN, GGR, CFP.To, WEE.V. These stocks are missing some particular technical element to qualify, or have advance beyond the "LOW RISK" area, while perhaps establishing a trend. FWIW, there they are for your interest.

All our stops have been moved upwards in our weekly advance on profits.

As far as I can see, this rally is as hollow and unreal as last year, and hence our selections and stops acknowledge this in two ways. First we only select stocks we are willing to HOLD if we had to, and second, we set stops to do two things: Preserve capital [ prevent getting trapped], and preserve profits.

I like rallies because I select mostly stocks under $5.00 to maintain strong upwards leverage when they move, and basically lower priced inverse ETF's are hard to trade unless you are RIGHT THERE, RIGHT THEN. Whether this rally turns out to be false or not, will not affect the validity of the profits we take from it, so we shall profit as we can.

CIAO



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Friday, July 17, 2009

ITS A JUNGLE OUT THERE

AND now Mr. Nasty, VIX, VOLUME and breadth all are speaking in different tongues.

To be clear, Nothing wrong with riding profits up, but confused as this market is giving us signals, when the guys from stockcharts [blogs] [ www.blogs.stockcharts.com]
tell you they see conflicting signals, then, we are NOT hallucinating calling them also

Profits are one thing, RIDING THE TIGER IS ANOTHER, simply more dangerous.

Use your "Field Awareness" to keep you safe, and adjust any stops you have, mental, physical, or trailing, to keep you safe. AS Subscribers to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS
clearly see, THERE ARE VEHICLES ALONG MOST EVERY DAY, so do not let profits turn into losses. You need not get shaken out of a position, but watch your indicators and make sure you get your profits. Even the SILVER and BRONZE MEDAL WINNERS posted here, and the "ALSO-RANs" are far far better to ride, than allowing profits to turn into losses for fear of not having another candidate to ride later.

Stay Aware, stay nimble, stay profitable [Give PEAK PIX a test drive when your ready].

Till then, have a great day. Next week we will publish a review.

DG

WHATS UP DOC?




Yeah just what is up? Is this whiplash ala GOLDMAN, or is that 4 TRILLION of sidelined money gonna buy all the US DEBt and leave enuf left over for a stock market party? Everyone LUV's a party, and no fund manager or hedgie wants to be left behind.
Now I dont know WHO is holding the cash, nor did I refer to the fixed-income or currency trading sections to see if the 130 Bil of debt the Treas had, was a bang-on sale, but it did occur to me that the market was more resilient today on less of a liquidity pump than before. MEANING ? Apparently more Bang for the Buck, even tho CIT threatened to tank.

Me, I look for a "Wall of Worry" to see whether we are being walled in, or in fact this is a series of steps.

No, this is not an all clear. BUT this is a "Watch your stops, and dont get shook out of long positions unnecessarily. I really dont care how it plays. More its about being on the right side of the play......

DG

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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Strange strange markets, or are they simply PIVOTAL?



If you want to see bewilderment or unknowningness on the part of professionals, please reference the BLOGS section, at StockCharts,



The guys at this section are puzzled why the VIX and the SPX are moving in the same direction, or noting that the COMPQ is advancing, and Mr. Nasty is moving down.

Maybe some dont want to call it for what it is. TO say that the markets are chaotic, would be accurate. Hard to keep your powder dry with the boat pitching and yawing all over the place.

Stay Aware, and Good Luck

DG



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Waaaay too much fun,dont you agree ?

lets see, who's news? BEE ? Never heard of them ! OK, EEEE ? LVS? you heard of them ! PQ, had a huge dilutive stock offering at this level and refused to go down?
MDW ? Marginal gold producer. FRG ? Up and down the scale once already, and in a trend now. NOG ? Nice trend.

Funny these guys didnt even make THE LIST. Why? either they are already deeply in their trends, or they are not close enuf to making the turn to give the greatest profit potential with the lowest loss potential.

Basically buying a stock when its price is rising, missing the beginning of the trend, reduces your potential and leverage in about the same measure as holding a security while its price declines.

Some of these outfits are in Financial Near Death Experiences, proxy fights or management changes. Look at CYD, in the process of eliminating a preferential "GOLDEN SHARE", and is showing the activity attributed to the anticipation of its elimination.

Over time, what I am noticing is that as I scan and sift, the feel of the selections changes as the rally prices alot of companies out of Reversal Mode. Typically this continues as the rally moves to a top. Typically bottoms are target-rich environments, whereas tops reduce the available supply of PICKS.





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WHOOPS - > ? here comes the GRUN WELLE ?





Or so it looks, Mr. Nasty's daily reading has come up for air, and has his head barely above water, for now.

The other image is a quick and unrefined look at the volume vs the price, and in a decidedly UN-BULLISH manner, volume is declining as price advances.

Top chart here shows the NYSE advance decline line, with a series of green dots behind it measuring manifested LIQUIDITY by two securities that are sensitive to US Treas and FED market operations which provide liquidity to the markets in varying degree.

Total up what you have here, and it is NOT a text book Bull market, more like a herd of lemmings floating on pools of liquidity, flogged onwards by fund managers, black boxes, and quant algorithms, onward across the PLAINS of COMPLACENCY towards the CLIFFS OF EUPHORIA. However, I think there will be little joy in Mudville as the Treasury continues to sell debt in the markets, this days portion, 130+ Billion.

It is as if the Treasury is sucking all the Oxygen [ cash ] out of the room, while providing SCUBA breathers to its main players to convince those looking in, that all is well..... so no one sees the Bears or the Bear markets in disguise, as they are hiding in plain sight. No that is not Grandmom's bear rug over the couch, its a BEAR masquerading as a couch...........

More........

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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Who is news. WHODA thunk it ??


well the GRUNE WELLE is rolling, yes the green wave, of money across the globe [whether it buys anything, well the is different], but as it washes thru the three main markets, ASIA, EUROLAND, and NAMERICA in turn, it flows thru markets, mostly turning the GREEN if the PUMPS are revved up high enuf....

Note Mr. Nasty is not dancing to their tune, but he is tapping his toe, making ripples as funds leave the markets. Yes an up ripple here, and there, but in the main,
you can safely spot the high-money mark back on May 11, another a month later, and NOW. Gee that looks like fun.

Here, the balance of my scans from last night: LYV, GSI, KEY, CEF, AZK, SWC, TIE, RRI, HIL, ANV. For our Canadian friends we have GPR.to, SGF.to, AEI.to, BAA.to, CLM.to, IMG.to, JAG.to, NDM.to, PCA.to, SVM.to, QUA.to

Of course they are the,BEST of the REST published here for your reading pleasure, after I defined how I figure which ones to publish.

My best wild scientific guess is this manic pumped rally runs a bit farther into July, even as Mr. Nasty shows the funds leaking out of the market.

Have fun, be careful, Good Luck,


DG

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Peak Perfromance Picks

How PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS [ PPP] work.

My nightly scans find some stocks that meet PRELIMINARY Criteria, P-SCANS, for preliminary,and E-Mail the best to subscribers immediately.

Weekly I Scan, Match, Filter and Rate the best of the P-SCANS, E-Mailing the Best of that TOP TEN, the GOLD MEDAL WINNERS to subscribers.

I publish the rest here, to be sorted out by the readers who want to. They are NOT the cripple, lame and lazy, but lacking certain criteria, they cannot make the TOP TEN.



PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS has ONE MISSION.

MISSION: to produce profits for subscribers.

Two Concepts:

CONCEPT 1 - finding tradeable stocks to work with, preferably $5.00 and below.

CONCEPT 2 - Using the shortest possible time-frame to work in for profit, minimizing time exposure risks.

Admittedly, some picks will run longer and harder and farther, which I designed to be the attainable exception.

Anyway, now you know what I was thinking and still am.

Good Luck.

DG

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Asia is up tonite, very hard, Japan & China about


2.4% each. HMM, now lets see if that wave collapses into the Euro market later tomorrow AM.

Smoke and mirrors will be the order of this week and its earnings season charade

Note MR. NASTY, [ green line] above chart, refuses to lie, and tells you that, overall, funds are leaving the market, in spite of the valiant rear guard action, with the accompanying smoke and mirrors. The sharp hils and valleys, instead of the long ups and downs, attest to the schizophrenic nature of the market, being pushed and pulled in different directions by overt intervention.

When the scans reveal widely varying groups, moving similar or disparate ways, it adds the "Hindenburg Omen" flavor to this potpourri of a market.

Tonites scans, for instance include LYV, GSI, KEY, CEF, AZK, SWC, TIE, RRI, HIL, ANV, IMO, MTO.to, GPR.to, SGF.to, AEI.to, CLM.to, BAA.to, IMG.to, JAG.to, NDM.to, PCA.to, SVM.to, QUA.to, setting up for potential trend reversals.

I say, ABC, Always BE CAREFul. Keep your powder dry, speculate smart and stay aware.

As it grows late, I shall take my leave and sleep well.

Good Luck

DG

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Monday, July 13, 2009

Your time NOW? What market ?

You are INVITED to help us launch our PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS. NOW you can subscribe to PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS, which were previously only available to consulting clients.

After writing and writing about the challenges facing average investors, it was time to go public, so on Midnight July 12th, PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS went public.

Scanned, filtered and selected REVERSAL Candidates Selection Results to your INBOX,

Yours to test drive for less than the cost of a Big Mac Meal, and a lot better for you.

Done right it can fatten your bottom line, not your waist line. Now really folks, is it all simple.?

Yes Simple, Quick, Effective ! ! Effortless ? No, you must act timely & follow-up.

SIMPLE, yes for you. That was the idea all along

No Tsunami of Text, no conflicting guru’s opinions. No conflict, No double talk.
NOT SIMPLE =’s NOT FEASIBLE.

PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS is based on technical criteria, basic observation, and each stocks statistics. You know when there is going to be a thunderstorm, we all do, it doesn’t take a weatherman to do that. And a trained observer can help you track it even better.

What does it take? Preliminary scans of all the listed stocks in US and Canada, for the first step. Second, filtering the scan results. Third, a “Trained Observer”, not an algorithm, not a “Quant” or black box, to evaluate and sort the next results, and rate them, and apply their OWN relevant statistical measures to them. Sort them into Winners, Gold Medal, Silver Medal and Bronze Medal winners, and track them. And get them to you TIMELY.

PEAK PERFORMANCE Winners you can use to fatten your bottom line, and take a bite out of the market..

Does it always work ? No, it does not. Experience shows me it works about 75% of the time. Did I say your mileage will vary ?? I am sure it will, some.
For every FOUR selected, one throws us for a loss [ Margin of Safety], Two produce reasonable profits over 2-4 weeks, and one turns into a runner. “CHECK-Back” and “Margin of Safety” data is available to help you stay with those runners and not get bucked off.

Your portfolio's performance is worth a lot more than even a year of whatever you care to name, so a wee bit of your time and attention may just pay off.

Tomorrow I will publish the PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS clients had available to them Sunday midnight.

Good Luck

Sunday, July 12, 2009

What I expect now

I expect I will enter the top three numerically rated stocks WHICH are NOT shown on the LINKS under AAA Top Rated Stocks. Based on a Peak Rating of 10, my three top stocks are rated #1/ [ Nat Gas # & P ],10/10; #2 [ Crude Oil Producer ], / 9 of 10 ; #3/ [Agricultural Products ], 8.3 of 10.

The stocks listed on the links are rated as follows: FRG, 7.7 of 10; CKR, 7.7 of 10;
TSM, 7.7 of 10; CYD 7.3 of 10; MVG 7.0 of 10; UMC, 6.7 of 10; HRZ, 6.3 of 10;
DEJ, 5.7 of 10; KGN 5.0 of 10.

COMPOSING the ratings were the Position of Momentum and Trend Measures like MACD,
Money Flow considerations as could be seen in CHaiken Money Flow [ CMF ], Price Action as often summarized by the relationship of various daily price movements represented by Japanese Style Candlesticks, Confirmation by Volume Patterns, plus volatility and risk assessment. Each of these factors is given a numerical weighting and totalled, and VOILA, the above numbers !. Thats what I KNOW.

After screening ALL the listed stocks in the US and Canada, thru some universal criteria, the remaining are then subjected to filtering thru my personal criteria.
Those remaining after that, are then rated on the above criteria by a HUMAN BEING,
Me !!!

Any stock making it into the actual rating process, probably has 10 to 20 times the reversal potential of most unrated stocks in the Universe of Listed Stocks in Canada and the USA. Therefore, a 5 of 10 rating is like receiving a Bronze Olympic Medal, on its potential for a reversal. The top third would be the Gold Medalists, the next third the Silver Medalists, and the Bronze Medalists would be next. Each is a high honor on potential, but you have to watch the Olympic Event to see how they actually place. Those stocks on this list, represent the top 1/2 of 1% of the tops in potential technical reversals, so its a hard one to make.

Anyway have fun with the Silver and Bronze Medialists, and I will post the Gold Medalists by the end of this week.

Good Luck.

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Saturday, July 11, 2009

Are I confused ?

Lets see, Baltic Shipping Index is headed down. But the chinese shipping companies are goosing up rates for the 40 foot containers, and Horizon Lines stock is about goose itself up. The Feds ARE floating all this debt by sinking the market, but we know the market is topping right? Oh yes did I forget about the rally that is coming?

In fact, dont all these conflicting facts make you want to chuck it and go fishing?

Well tomorrow is Free Fishing Day, so yes we are going fishing.

Yep these guys and their fundamental information are awfully confusing. What does NOT confuse me is the 15+ stocks that have rendered clear buy signals as of Thursday's close.
Folklore has it that a bull market is 2/3's of stocks going up an the other 1/3 not
Same would be reversed for bear markets. IMO, this is a bear market. SOO, after I numerically rate these +15 stocks, I'll better know what I am going to acquire Monday

So far it looks like a few energy stocks, an industrial or two, a couple PM's,an agriculture stock, a shipper, and a resturant chain. I cant tell what, if anything, it is saying about the market at large. Maybe Sunday I will have a chance to write more.

Good luck everyone,

DG


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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

" I Tell Ya What......"



got to be the one of the best and funniest lines I have ever come across, and its from
"HANK HILL" on "KING OF THE HILL". Now lets look at a picture that is at least as useful .

ITEM one is Mr Nasty. Down again, here is why:

Nice Pix


Jul 8, 2009


Advancing Issues 1,230 (32%)
Declining Issues 2,456 (65%)


Up Volume 2,329,797,754 (78%)
Down Vol 580,338,414 (19%)

So by 2 to 1, declining issues outnumber advances. BUT volume is channeled into specific stocks.

Now lets look at the PINK line, the OEX stocks, and we see them supported by the LIQUIDITY FLOW.

Now if you wish to analyzed the TIME of the volume, and where it went, you get a different picture. The top chart shows a NECKLINE formed at 415 on the OEX. Superimposing the $VLE unweighted, you would see it clinging to the top of the channel, whereas the DOW, clings to the bottom of the channel.

Money is exiting the equities markets and seeking refuge in other than ordinary common stocks, whether preferred's, bear ETF's or Income securities, Notes [ ETN's] or other securities. There is a shuffle going on here, nad its is NOT into the mature companies, but, IMO, its about two kinds of stocks. One is a stock that is prominent or featured in an INDEX, or a stock that has a critical function, technical or otherwise, in a key economy segment. As much as this has to do with Interventionist Economics, it also has to do with International Finance, which as always points out that conditions are dynamic and forces and events do not happen in a vacum, not bloody likely.... I tell ya what......


It looks confusing because there are more than just one cross current, but if anyone wants to acquire a pivotal position in a given stock, they have no interest in slowing the decline in general markets.....hence the confusing picture.

My guiding concept, is that breadth leads the market. Increasing amounts of money in to fewer and fewer stocks, is not generally interpreted as a bullish picture, or one that precedes bullish activity.

Stay Aware, keep your powder dry,

DG


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Liquidity Relationship Clearly Pictured




Here is the clearest pictured relationship I have posted so far, between the Liquidity as manifested by the preference for Corporate over Govt securities. As more and more "MONEY" is ENTERED into the Markets, the higher the SPX 500 goes. As the rate of fund addition slows, the upward movement in the Indexes slackens and starts to trail off.
No funds additions ='s no upward movement in the Indexes.

Very telling is the MACD for the Standard Poors 500 index, a perfect dome as the market turns over. Add in Mr. Nasty's turn down and you have a picture perfect rollover of the markets OUT OF RALLY MODE.

I think that picture is worth a lot more than a thousand words.



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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

As Far as Market Internals are concerned



lets look at MR. NASTY who is living up to his name again.

Does this look like a hideous drop? If it looks bad to you, IMO, you have 20/20 vision

Now you can run the the scans and find that the Bearish ENGULFING and the BEARISH MACD cross-overs outnumber their bullish counterparts , 11 to 1. Kinda decisive.

Ya gotta wonder what is going bad and who knows it. Certainly the 130 $Bil Treas financing this week is not helping. I think it is the logical outcome of a market that has been boosted, and liquified until its like the Missouri River, too thick to drink and too thin to plow. If we refer to the liquidity chart, you see its hard for the S&P to stay up without continued prodding from liquidity injections.

Its pretty easy to see that the S&P runs out of steam when the acceleration of liquidity backs off. Thats gonna make it really hard to keep this market going up


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The "OTHER SHOE", replays last Autumn



The "panic buying" of US 30 Yr Bonds represents the extreme deflation scare of last year. By the beginning of September of last year, this buying had propelled the buying above the median line btwn recent highs and lows, and the acceleration lines embedded to the upside, pending equilibrium restoration. Note that is has done the same this year ALREADY. The consequences are dire, all except for sellers of US BONDS.


For those who'd care to participate as Beta participants in a SCAN, FILTER and SCREEN process for selecting Short Term Scalp candidates, you may register at

http://denaliguide.webs.com/
In any case, please stay aware, alert and poised.

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Sunday, July 5, 2009

So lets eat Italian, you like? Linguinie Alfredo ?

TURIN, ITALY - APRIL 29:  The symbols of Lanci...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Alfa Romeo ? Ducati ? Dodge RAM ? Which one is edible? Which one is not Italian ?

Trick question eh ? I guess you could eat your Alfredo to-go in the Hugomongo cab of your Cummins Diesel powered Dodge Ram, but it'd still be an Italian Truck now that Fiat has bought what it wanted of Chrysler. I guess some of my red-neck buddies off-roading out in the Chatanika Valley are gonna be put out cause some Gucci loafered exec in Milan is going to be calling the shots on spare parts in Alaska for their diesel ground pounders.

SO WHAT ? WHO CARES ?

Lets see, 2 of the 3 BIG THREE [ former ] are now bankrupt. BANKRUPT. GONE ! GM will come back as a shadow of its former self. Ask some laid off GM works how strong GM is gonna come back. Their homes are not YET in foreclosure. How long will that last?

A point made is that the first and most recent wave of foreclosures, was those most vulnerable and those whose "margin-calls" bucked them right off that bucking Real Estate bull.

Lets see, and if any of you want to or can do the math, please do: the rest of the homeowners are still in their homes. What% struggles to balance two jobs, two kids, two car payments, and small savings against the current dynamic? Their prices are rising for fuel, groceries and consumables. Their ability to fund this by other than borrowing is limited as is the borrowing window. While we have not touched the "MISERY INDEX" which is calculated by adding the True Inflation Rate, to the TRUE UNemployment Rate, my suggestion is that RIGHT NOWit probably approaches or exceeds that of the nasty period in the 1979-80 period. We remember the Prime Rate in the high teens [ 18% ?], and the unemployment rate in the low teens [ 12% ?].

All govt officials will argue otherwise, but the REAL data would suggest that the Real and True unemployment rate is approaching 15%, not even touching the downshifting of job quality here in North America. At the farmers market Saturday morning, I could find examples of 20% inflation without even resorting to math. The grocery stores are also as indicative of price movement in that bracket.

OK, AGAIN, who CARES ?

No one who has a job cares YET.... Might they care later ??? You can say the jury is out on that one, UNTIL it is discovered that we are in the "1931"comparison, instead of the "1936" comparison to the GREAT DEPRESSION.

That makes the MISERY INDEX "back of the napkin" calculation for 2009 a bit scary, IMO, as I see no real way that we are already in the SECOND WAVE. All the Elliot Wave Counts aside, I cannot point to any other "Peak & Drop" move as prominent as this current one since Nov '08. So far what we see in the Real Estate downside breakout, is only the beginning.

THEREFORE, logically [ your gonna hate this conclusion ], THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. The froth has been swept away as if in the First Storm Surge of a hurricane. My experience with hurricanes suggest TO ME, that we have 2/3 of this storm to go thru. BECAUSE, if Joe and Mary TWO INCOMES have only started to feel the pinch, then I think when the "roll-down", rather than 'trickle-down' effects of this First Storm Surge hit Joe & Mary TWO INCOMES, we will be in new territory in the MISERY INDEX, as Joe & Mary TWO INCOMES have to negotiate with Retired MOM & DAD for assistance to weather the storm, maybe give up a car, suffer a loss of one job, take the kids out of all Xtra-curricular activities, and maybe consolidate realty with MOM & DAD. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS I DONT THING WE WILL SEE 1936 or 1940.

Am I a really mean guy for saying this ? Yes I guess so.... Where I live, things are tranquil and normal. Yes we have had First Wave casualties, the Risk Takers, those on the Outer Margin, the Vulnerable, the First Wave peeled them off and now they are adrift. Yet no one is really alarmed down here, two or three levels down. The successive waves will cut into us and peel more of us away to set us adrift, maybe even me three layers down. When that happens it will be 1936 or 1940, and the world will be awash in DOOM, DOOM, DOOM, with no optimism to be found. At that time, there will be NO SELLERS LEFT. The rest is history.


What I am talking about above, is REAL LIFE, where Armageddon occurs when the price of something you need quadruples before you can get any, or your kids need something you can no longer provide.

NOT what I am talking about is the fair-tale world of the stock and bond markets denominated in currency designations, rather than, the real misery of running out of gas, or losing your job, or trying to find decent housing. These are the items that relate to the MISERY INDEX. The concept of MISERY INDEX also allows you to project what likely could be a rip in the societal fabric if people cannot obtain what they THINK they need. Expectations could play a large part in changes in society under these scenarios.

Next time maybe we will talk about where the money went. That basic article is in the archives of this blog.

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Friday, July 3, 2009

Mud on the tires, Boots on the ground.



Well Mr. Nasty didn’t like the bouncing Advances and Declines, unable to approach, let alone the two peaks, one the 2nd week of May, and then the 2nd week of June. Roughly speaking, the S & P price level, is approximately coincident with the Peaks in Mr. Nasty.
Insert [ MR. NASTY chart]

Typically in price waves, often the 2nd wave is the the more extreme of the two, relative to price. That means the 2nd peak is Higher in advances, and Lower in declines. Again, the S & P 500 has lived up to this pattern.

Tips, hints, clues. All work. BUT, to fail to consider the evidence right before our eyes, will considerably hinder our attempts to SEE.

Looking at the Wilshire [ $WLSH] you see a steep decline of the 200 DMA,and its upward cross of the 50 DMA. Some would attempt to call this a “GOLDEN CROSS”, but classically it is not so defined. CLASSICALLY, a Golden Cross of the 50 DMA above a 200 DMA, is when the DMA is trending upward and positively inclined.

The cross you see here [ Insert WLSH chart] is that of a temporary BLIVIT CROSSING, like the Wandering Figure 8’s we see when trend is NOT DEFINED. Further observed, since a BULL Market creates an UPWARDS sloping 200 DMA, we define this as something OTHER than a Bull Market.. Define that as you may, I call it dangerous ground, thin ice.

INVESTOPEDIA [ I like their stuff] says: nvestopedia explains Golden Cross
As long-term indicators carry more weight, the Golden Cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes. Additionally, the long-term moving average becomes the new support level in the rising market.

Look carefully at the trading volumes on any exchange during this time period and generally you see a pattern of lower UP-Volume on this rally, than on the rally that lead to the previously established peak. VOLUME DOES NOT SUPPORT THE “Continued Rally” Thesis. Without a consistent pick-up in volume to bid for stocks to support the rally, THEREfore, IMO, this is a Bear Market Rally, not supported by volume. VOLUME speaks Volumes. Again, MY Opinion Only, given the financial shenanigans we have witnessed in the last two years, I suggest that the rally we see here, trying to suck in as much money as possible, as a total rear guard action to hold the door open to the escape of PREFERRED capital, before these market levels are breeched to the downside.

Considering what has transpired in the last two years and the continuing trend to the transfer of wealth throughout the world, it would not surprise me that extreme measures are being taken to combat the drain of funds out of established patterns. Therefore, while it’s a bit edgy, in a public place, to suggest that certain groups get preferential treatment, that is what I am saying. The rest of us will have to fend for ourselves.

It is said that the Summation Index [ Mr. Nasty if you use the NASD] shows the flow of funds in and out of the markets , as a matter of observation, I agree.

Basically, Price can lead you merry chase, but BREADTH and VOLUME will confirm both price and each other. Failing the classic interaction of those three, the premise is false. BREADTH & VOLUME, consistently, over time, no matter how you slice them, are the most reliable confirming indicators I have observed.. Given that, I will try to include some charts for you to access in links, so you can check your conclusions against the Volume and Breadth Indicators.

Far as I am concerned, Breadth and Volume are the Boots on the Ground and the Mud on the Tires, they are the real thing


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