Sunday, May 31, 2009

DAILY Not Pretty



I'd say this pool has lots of sharks hiding in it !

Not PRETTy



Volume drives the markets. Everyone HATES to sell at a loss. Therefore dropping volume is bad two or more ways. Volume drops when a market recedes as there are few that want lower prices for the stocks they hold, until they get an epiphany or something else happens, like a need for cash or a margin call. Dropping volume in a rising market tends to imply DISTRIBUTION, a seriously dirty word amongst the non-professionals out there. Dropping volume on a rising price also implies a false rise. Without market volume to drive market prices, things are in fact, soured.

The solid lines are Moving Averages of the NYSE PRIMARY VOLUME.

The Dashed lines are of 1/ a Breadth index,the SI, and 2/ the DJIA.

NOT PRETTY.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

I guess it dont take a weatherman to tell



which way the wind is blowing. When you review chart #1, McNasty, and chart #2 A-D's cumulative, you get the idea that the correction is under way.
Review the idea that yesterday there were 580 NYSE Bullish Engulfing Japanese Candlestick Formations,and today ZERO and 44 NYSE Bearish Engulfing Japanese Candlestick Formations, you get a feel for the schizophrenic nature of the current marketplace.

To me it speaks silently of the "Tweaking & Freaking" of the marketplace. IMO, the news is basically bogus and the focus changes at any given moment. Liquidity-wise, you see the market pulled, prodded and pushed by Fed Intervention Injections "To Maintain Liquidity" as the pretext. Many of us have come to know that move as the old "Greenspan Put" where no large organization can "FAIL". Change the name but the game remains the same. Do you have your stops in place? Do you have shorts working?
Do you have a vision for your game plan and Snap-Audibles to be called at the line of scrimmage when we get possession of the ball again?

Very briefly, four stocks have suffered Financial Near Death Experiences, IMO:
HTM, BQI, DNN and JTX. Three have recovered and prospered due to cash tranfusions, the fourth is in recovery from its surgery, and may yet prosper. In spite of the carnage in the markets these stocks have vaulted by half, double and triple, the fourth suffering a 10% Stop Loss for an exit. To my way of thinking, picking the profits from these stocks is one way I have found to cope with this market. Obviously Financial Near Death Experiences wont always be the "Soup de jour" on our menu, but for now, those profits are tasty. I think stocks like this can be traded via Fast Stochastic Matrices, but offer a great way to buy as they bounce off their bottoms, and return to financial viability, even if only temporarily. The four FNDE [Financial Near Death Experience] patients have held true to form when it comes to technically scanning and filtering some of the 5K stocks out there for Listed rebound and reversal potentials, in that 3 of 4 have been profitable in both the ultra short term [ 15 min to 3 days], and the interval from 3 days to 3 weeks. As I track them further, I will know more about their behavior in the Intermediate term.
My current take on candidates like these are that they can be acquired when they drop back into the Bottom Section [ typically labelled "OVERSOLD" ] within a Full Stochastic Overlay. Right now DNN appears very close to this position.

DG

Monday, May 25, 2009

STAIRnario - what the heck does that mean



The above chart is not a stair-step chart. It is a a breadth momentum chart. FWIW.

Back to the STAIRnario. Back in the day, stable markets etc, etc, when a stock would be seen as a value, it would move up in "sawtooth" or "stair-step" fashion, sort of , 2 forward, 1 back, so that a trend be formed.

I do not consider the current situation to be stable. I do, however, consider that when the market opens down 100, and then flops and flips around it, so that it never goes up much, to be the REVERSE STAIRSTEP. I notice that on the down days, it goes down BANG, right at the open and never regains the ground. It happens often enuf that it feels like it is orchestrated, by whom I cant say. I can say that there are futures on indexes and critical stocks that would allow such an orchestration to take place. I can say further, that with some very broad indexes, there is great disparity as to what happens vis-a-vis the more senior indexes, so say, the DOW looks one way and the Russell 2000 looks completely different.

Now that the Other Guy is feeling "liberated" by living in subrubia, you can see that
his Guys did things different than the New Guys.

The New Guys are acting a bit more sophisticated, perhaps treading lightly using the STAIRnario to keep from panicing the markets, but equally trapping people IN the decline by taking it down SOOOO fast no one can sell out and start a cascade down.
Certainly watching markets open down inhibits potential sellers, as they see part of their potential proceeds stolen by the drop on the open.

Stepping back, like you would if you were carving Mt. Rushmore, looking at it from a distance, it is obvous, IMO, that the New Guys know the market must correct.
Not less obvious, is the pattern of two things: 1/ the market OPENED down 100 or so ; and 2/ the disparity btwn say the RUSSELL Indexes, and the DJ Indexes. The pattern is there for me, as I look from a distance.

What I like about the above pix is that it is, IMO, like looking at Mt.Rushmore from a distance. The dots are the cumulative index of the advances and declines run thru McClelland's Summation Index. The Green Line is a 4 day simple moving average.
It is clearly self explanatory. The gold line is the Momentum Index, again based on the McClelland's processing, somewhat like MACD, processing a shorter one against a longer one, to get the difference. It takes some observation to see how it works together but not a lot of interpretation. When the dots are BLACK and on top of the GREEN Line, then the Breadth is expanding positively and the market advancing.
When the Dots are RED and below the Green Line, the Breadth is shrinking negatively and the market declining. Yes they do flip flop some but not enuf to neutralize this kind of chart as an indicator. Certainly you'd done well to be LONG as soon as the DOTS turned BLACK and climbed atop the GREEN LINE. Not hard to interpret, just requires you keep your eye on the ball.

Good Luck

DG

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Hey Buddy can you Spare a CRIME ?

yes you heard that right. "HEY BUDDY CAN YOU SPARE A CRIME".

My friend, Monty High has a good take on the Bank Looting and produced an excellent work I invite you to view at:

WWW.STOPTHELOOTING.com.

I should warn you, he does not come out for summary execution of the BANKSTERS and their WALL STREET ILK as I do, but I am sure he'd not mind seeing two or three dozen swinging from the hangman's noose. I want investigators and prosecutors to run these criminals to ground, dig them out and put them in the dock, and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law. Maybe the prospect of a years in a cell with Bubba, whose Grannie was defrauded, will give a couple incentive to rat out the others. Ambition is one thing, but stone criminality in the name of greed is another. If you doubt these guys knew what they were doing, in the name of greed, read "LIAR'S POKER", it will disabuse you of any notion of innocence on their part.


Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Time for some news, or at least data




CONCEPT #1: Main Equities[Stock] Market is in decline in spite of the tweaks and whacks laid upon it. Various indexes other than the Dow / SPX reveal that there are just too many stocks out there to stay up all by themselves.

Principle "A": Timing is everything, but gravity rules. Play as they may, the market will continue to decline into July from my current view.

Corollary "1a": Continued "Jawboning", and use of obscure, if not skewed data to be fed into marketplace, "Carpet Bombing Investors with Info" to fatigue them.

CONCEPT #2: Due to continued Liquidity fed into market or cash flow leaving market,
until the cycles for Monetary Metals run their course to the downside, they will shadow the main stock markets.

BREADTH and VOLUME

Breadth:

On the first Chart you see ROBO Market in action, driven by all the fiat money shoved into the hands of banks etc. Lots of it leaked into equities, some was injected. The Black Line is the cumulative number of issues advancing over decliners. So straight line, programmed, IMO.

Now since you can only inject any patient with so much of anything before two things happen, 1/ the injections become ineffective ; 2/ the injections cause organ failure. Note how the ORANGE LINE, which is momentum, DECLINES even in the face of HISTORIC Direct Financial Stimulation. Here is where, even MainLining this patient, injecting Financial Steriods directly into the markets biggest arteries, MOMENTUM Still shows us the injections are become ineffective.

Volume:

Clearly on the SECOND CHART, the volume bars Under the DJIA CHART show Non-Confirmation of a REAL Uptrend.

Wither goest thou from here?

My selections for longs are few. Since this top started forming, good longs have been few and far btwn. Sliding or Trailing stops, offset by a amount equal to One Standard Deviation or One Average True Range, depending on your anxiety or comfort level. The ATR is tighter, but the STAN DEV will avoid being shaken out so easily.
My current selections, I'd hold relatively fearlessly are CXZ, DEJ, BQI. Up the anxiety level one notch, are FTK, MVG, and under watch, JTX. My high anxiety but tenaciously held positions are FAZ, [ a short ETF], Short MAT [ Mattel], GPS [ GAP],
UN [ Unilever], INTC [Intel].
Now of course, if there was a position to worry my readers the most, it would be that my last selection for the simulation is SHORT the DGL, Gold ETF. That is current and will be so until I receive data to help me change my selection there.

Items I'd like to add to my portfolio at my perception of a bottom reversal in the Monetary Metals would be SVM, AGT, THM. In Canadian accounts I am long RSI/Un.to and FWR.v, and XEG.To.

I am selecting pages in "TA for Dummies" so we can refer to them as we progress.
There is an TA Group Forum I have in Investor Village your welcome to join, if you care to explore TA for yourself, "Stars Lie, Numbers Don't", is the board name, and the link is here:

http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=11008&pt=m&category=



I think it takes a sign up on Investor Village, which is here:

http://www.investorvillage.com/index.asp



Either way, good luck and stay vigilant,

DG

Monday, May 18, 2009

Exhibit "A" & "B", Original charts with Labels




The Top chart, as you see by the label, is GOLD, the bottom is the US DOLLAR.

Whatever you figuredd without the labels, is just as valid with the labels.

Good Luck

DG

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Exhibit "A" & Exhibit "B"; a tale of two tails



Exhibit A & Exhibit B. Bullish or Bearish as you decide.

The contrast btwn these two commonly traded issues is fairly striking. Which would you go long? which would you short?

Have fun.

DG

Friday, May 15, 2009

Bullish % INDEX of GDX components [ yellow line]

That yellow line is the %of the GDX Miners in bullish trends, and the whole complex for Bullish % indicators can be referenced here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:introduction_to_mark#bullish_percent_index_bpi

Its helpful for keeping an eyeball on it.

As a general rule, going long AS Soon AS an Index goes Over-Bought will work.

After its been Over-Bought awhile, or when it's ready to drop out of orbit [extreme]
is a "buy high, sell higher " proposition, ratcheting up the risk for each time unit consumed in EXTREME status. It surely does not fit my idea of Buy Low, Sell High.

Without evidence of "RANGE SHIFT", Incremental or Quantum, I am reluctant to knowlingly Buy High intending to sell higher.

Also with Reversal Analysis, one attempts to determine when periods where extreme readings of oscillators will most likely back off, and there are indicators that assist in spotlighting those windows.

Good Luck All,

DG

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

TextBook CrestOver ? ? ?



Not exactly an upside breakout? Earlier today I heard that the "Talking Heads" were theorizing yesterday, the DOW was +50, while all other indexes were negative due to SHORT COVERING in the DOW. WOW ! ! What a pretext of lies.!! Had it been SHORT COVERING, would not this have been the bottom ? ? ?

I'd have to say, lets see where it goes from here. The NYSE counterpart to this picture is less clearly defined, and another day or two of this will probably produce a counter- or relief rally, so tracking it will give you an edge.

Good Luck.

DG

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Ok so where is the GOOD NEWS?

well, should we have a SCARENARIO type situation, what would your choice of a short candidate be?

Here is my short list for tomorrow : COF, BCS, LNC, MTH, CHS, DTG, RT, KEY, SSW.

Have fun with them.

Today was exciting, and after some work, ACQUIRED CXZ & DEJ. Some funny business going on with CXZ after hours, we shall see what happens tomorrow.

BQI closed its offering today and I like what I see.

Good Luck.

DG

and YET AGAIN, as much as I hate to post this




The chart shows gold dropping from 925 to 680 after we ID'd a Rising Wedge in this linkhttp://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.com/2008/09/look-no-further.html

We now have another Rising Wedge in place. Scary as it is setting up both the General Market as well as the Gold Market. I am short some General Market Items, and out of the Metals and Miners. Do as you will, these are my opinions, but you can read back thru the blog posts if you have the time and patience and see what I have written.

Good Luck, Stay Vigilant

DG

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Bad Moon Rising? Paper or Plastic ?



Top Panel. Trendline drawn under CCI. How long does CCI have before it MUST break DOWN thru the trendline? Thats your max timing ! ! How likely is it that it drops out of orbit this week? Gets tighter by the day, !!


Main PANEL, prices. BLUE BOX -> Note that the prices have moved above the "80" Full Stochastic Line, considered OVERBOUGHT Territory, and stayed there SIX market days.

Bottom Panel. MACD Histogram bars declining whilst the twin lines flip and flop. IMO, a precarious position.

In fact, ask yourself, "WOULD I BUY THIS FORMATION IF IT WERE UPSIDE DOWN, or REVERSED ?" If your answer is yes, that you would go long here, were this chart UPSIDE DOWN, then a prudent course would be to either be in cash or ready to go to cash or have appropriate stops in place.

I am watching the Asian Open here and the Nikkei has a .3% up without TOYOTA, which when traded was DOWN 3%. The structure is suspect. I have already made my moves, but I simply dont trust the structure. I'd like to get onboard a bull market when it comes along but this is not it yet, IMO. Maybe it will be a shallow correction. Maybe not. I know this : When its all over, I will have the cash to get back in, to whatever issues I decide relate to capital gains. Right now, my senses are humming, trying to catch the buzz.

Good Luck, and Vigilance to All,

DG

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Buy the Rumor, sell the News !

Heavens to betsey, save us from more bailouts and interventions, stress tests, etc.

Notice the mullet in a feeding frenzy, being tossed chum by the specialists,insiders, and Market Makers ?

FWIW, I am sailing with my hatches battened down,and running with reduced sail.

I have my heavy metals deep inside my cargo holds, close to the keel as I can get it.

Whats in your cargo hold.? Whats in your wallet.? What kind of grip does your debt have on you? Will you be shot with a paper-patched clay bullet, the kind the CIA used to use back in the day? Will you dangle from a noose woven of plastic blivet-bag of the grocery store, made of plastic cards of Un-Dead-Credit-Zombies ?

I am rigged for deep and silent running. This does not mean I dont like the Silver, Nat Gas, and Uranium items I have selected but rather I will be reviewing
over 200 of the previous candidates to see if they have Re-Acquisition potential, somewhere on the downside of the next cycle. My basic theory here is that is is easier to get out on the Up-Stroke, then crowd the exits and fight for a sale with the bids dropping away as the Down-Move manifests.

I hope this is a heads up for you. If I had stops, I'd crank them up a bit tighter, even give them a 'wedgie' if you are happy with your profits. I think I'd clearly drop away any bids I had now to Sub-Stink Levels, not knowing what will transpire, and factually, if real drops occur, there will be plenty to buy as long as you have cash.

Good Luck, DYODD,

DG

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Here is a new selection, maybe you know it




I think BQI might have just emerged from a Near Death Experience, at the hands of the credit markets. New financing coming their way.

Might just work. DYODD, DYOHW

DG

Monday, May 4, 2009

A couple selections for SIMULATION

Well screening about 5K issues to find some candidates, came up with a bunch of stock, mostly metals juniors, acting like nervous racehorses going to the starting gate at the "Buy Out Derby", or so it would seem.

The two stocks here I have liked in the past are WDO.to, and NSU. NSU is mostly a silver play, and has good candlesticks, IMO. The others, TGB, well I know too much about that one, but its acting like it is getting some energy under it.
Evolving Gold [ EVG.v], I cannot speak to except to say I remember good fundo text snippets I have heard about it.

so US : TGB, NSU
Canadian: WDO.to , EVG.v, and of course the two others are also listed on Canadian exchanges.

DYODD, and good luck all

DG

Saturday, May 2, 2009

"Touched by the Moon" - > Moon Struck and other

such phrases. In my childhood I hear used the term "Alunae", which the speaker used to indicate the subject was a bit touched by the forces of the moon, or a wee bit off their rocker. This relates in a tiny tid-bit of a way, why I think things move together.

I often look at things like BRADLEY DATES, Fibonacci Date Clusters, and the infamous ARMSTRONG Dates. Even now Jim Sinclair is saying he thinks Alf Fields gold projections will come round right, probably on Martin Armstrong's dates. I dont agree, cause my Interest Differential XAU INDEX price projector shows a slow drift down into the early summer. No matter, because all those date series still have applicability within the other systems.

Fibonacci Dates are immutable, dont move once calculated, but do have windows of various length depending on the length of time used to calculate them. Clearly ARMSTRONG's and BRADLEY Dates are also Immutable,but still have windows. The overlapping nature of these items can be maddening, or enlightening.

I also looked at the Lunar Calendar. I dont discount astrology, but a lot of it is either complex or cryptic enuf I cant interpret it well.
To me, having worked with a certain sector of the public well enuf know to go "mental", I opine that the most dangerous part of the moon cycle is btwn the Waxing Half Moon, and the Waxing Full Moon, in this Case from 1 May to 9 May, when I find people behave most dangerously erratic. So most interesting is that the STRESS-TEST, true or bogus as it might be, had been scheduled for MAY 4, and now has been Re-Scheduled for 7 MAY. Given THIS Lunar "Dangerous / Crazy " window, I will be on my toes.

The picture I am seeing is a long drawn out top, where the MM's, Professionals, and Specialists have been, IMO, lightening their load by selling a lot of their inventory to the public. Had they not been so doing, the upside would be a lot more telling and intense. Truth be told, this is the role of these guys, within the system, mechanically, its not a conspiracy, but in fact, it is an indicator, IMO.
Functionally a long drawn out top instills complacency in the public which is where a FALL could occur.
Everyone who has tired of hearing my endless calls to impose protective stops, have my apologies. BUT I still am calling for protective stops. Specifically under virtually everything ! EVERYTHING ! ! ! What level you situate the STOP ORDER, or what type of order you use, is within your discretion.

Stay vigilant, and keep your powder dry,

DG

Friday, May 1, 2009

Cascade Effect??? Whom knows ??

Whilst I have been talking about some Bradley Dates, I also have looked at ARMSTRONG DATES, and the TURN date ARMSTRONG Identified, was APR 19.
Now Apr 19 was a high for markets at almost 8200 DJIA, and Low for Gold at about 860something. I'd think that the May 4 Date was the BREAKOVER date for the cascade effect or something to that effect as a result of the topping activity for the General Equity Markets. Given that Tops take awhile to develop, I wonder if this is a likely scenario ?? That is an area I am currently look into.

Also Jim Sinclair has a great little piece that I copy on here, that points in a similar direction. And I quote :

"Dear Comrades In Golden Arms, APRIL 30,2009

Exogenous events that cause slower economic activity of duration for any reason, be that the bankruptcy of Chrysler Motors, General Motors, or influenza results in:

The largest national economy has the largest financial problem.

Lesson here:

1. Great expenses for both Federal and State governments.
2. Drastically lower income tax receipts both for Federal and State government.
3. A ballistic rise in the US Federal and State Budget Deficits.
4. Lower business activity across the board at a time when bankruptcy is being held off by Federal contribution of taxpayer's funds for all major financial institutions.
5. Increased bankruptcy in the too "small to matter" category.
6. Followed by bankruptcy filings of municipal debt.
7. All of which will be factored into the LARGER NATION, this time as having the LARGEST FINANCIAL PROBLEM, breaking any technical flows or safe haven characteristics of the US dollar.
8. Gold rises to Alf Field's numbers on Martin Armstrong's timing.
9. Hyperinflation never occurs in good business conditions. It never has and never will. It occurs in the midst of the worst business and political circumstances possible, but then no one seems to get that key fact.

Armstrong's timing was both April 19th and again in June.

Lesson here:

The larger nation has the larger financial problem.

Note: A two month bankruptcy period would set jurisprudence history as no sitting bankruptcy judge would have time to even say his own name in that period."

Anyway, thats what I am thinking.

I will be setting up a forum for TA discussion and list the link here when I accomplish that, for those who care to work off a message board. Later on I will add a chatroom.

Best to ya,

DG

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