Friday, January 30, 2009

Excitement Plus!

Ok Denaliguide fans this is Doll and I've kid-napped his blog for a quick moment to share some news. (he's my husband so it's really ok)

A 90 Day Deep Tissue Detox

Wow! I can hardly believe that there are only 48 hours before this program goes live! Join me in a new, safe and effective way to improve your over all health. Just click the flashing detox banner and you will be on your way.

I just finished listening to the teleseminar where Dr. T of Ecopolitan answers some common questions. You can find that here:

Raw Divas Blog
Yours in good health and green living,
Doll

now back to your regular financial blogging with Denaliguide!

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Hopes & Fears



Well if we are going to discuss timing, we need to look at the graphic record.

Us gold enthusiasts tend to get carried away and the FORCE [ green & brown, behind price ], shows how wound up we get. I guess we can let go here, until we get down to a corrected level. You can see the MACD is wandering, but in DownTrend. Williams % of RANGE, is a measurement of where the stock is, within its Range of the last 2 weeks.
Essentially it has entered an OVERBOUGHT position and is gonna work it off [ IMO ]
as it 'eases on down the road'. The Indicators can be interpreted but they arent rocket science.
Let me know if you'd like Educational Consulting, and Good Luck,

DG

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

West Texas Intermediate Crude closes @ 45.90



And here on the ONE HOUR Commodity Chart, is $42.15 as I write at almost 10 PM EST.
The hourly MACD Histogram is flattening. [ silver bars ]. As a "Centered Oscillator" the MACD can go anywhere it wants without indicating overbought or oversold merely by level. DIRECTION in MACD is the determiner. Position-wise, it is entering a Turn ZONE
The WILLIAMS Per Cent RANGE [ WMS%R ][ Brown Line], is a "BANDED OSCILLATOR" has definite OVER-Bought & OVER-Sold Zones. This Brown line is being squeezed into a zone now, a compressed overbought position.
Lastly, the CCI, the COMMODITY CHANNEL INDEX, is also Compressed in an over-sold zone [ the GREEN Line ].
When either of these BANDED OSCILLATORS breaks upward thru a trend line you may draw across the tops & peaks, it will constitute a breakout warning. SOOOOO when we see Crude Re-Bound off this low, a series of price achievements will start creating some upward horsepower to get UPTREND FOR CRUDE underway.

Its a time to remain vigilant, and poised. The DGS Letter will contain specific ideas on exploiting this and other developing trends.
The DGS Letter is available in a No-Charge subscription from "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" in return for your postal or Zip code and how you found Denaliguidesummit.

Good Luck,

DG

CROWD PLEASERS - >

From a list I keep of issues I frequently run thru accounts, some have run, some are currently buyable, IMO, either resting momentum-wise or actually pulled back into ACQUISITION ZONES. The list I am currently working from is:

NGA, DHT, EGO, DAR, PGH, RSI/Un.to, MVG, TGA, FHC, AZK, PLM, FRG, GORO, DXO, KGN, BGS, MFN, PVX, CEF, CFW, HGT, PBT.

Assessing the position, and momentum, IMO, the following stocks could be ACQUIRED in this ZONE for subsequent DISPOSAL :

NGA, DHT, PGH, MVG, FHC, PLM, FRG, DXO, BGS, MFN, PVX, CEF, HGT, PBT.

I am working from the premise that this is a Bear Market Rally, even tho it could turn into a bit larger rally than this, it will, in larger context, still be a BEAR MARKET RALLY.

When you hear the TALKING HEADS spewing about lack of leadership, they reveal that they have NOT looked at the BREADTH. Within the BREADTH, is the Leadership, IMO.

DG

JUST A REMINDER

1/ you can subscribe to the DGS Letters currently at NO-Charge by sending an email requesting it to "Denaliguide2@yahoo.com" and telling your zip or postal code and how you found out about Denaliguidesummit and the DGS Letter.

2/ you can of course, subscribe to this blog so you dont always have to check it.

DG

Whither Goest Thou Bear Market Rally ? Part Deux


lets skip back to the 10 min chart of the $WLSH posted on Sat Jan 24, and look carefully at the scale corresponding to the RED TOP LINE of the TRIANGLE. That line Terminated on the Right Hand side of the Chart at 8400. Without having to look I can tell you that the $WLSH is now in the 8500's, again a depiction of a DECISIVE BREAKOUT.
Yes the 30 stocks in the DOW are tired, but the 5000 stocks in the WILSHIRE are off and running. See for yourself. Its there - > at lunch time it was 8530. The bottom line here is that the BOTTOM LINE belongs to the Broad Market, not the DOW, no matter how the TALKING HEADS phrase it. Pick your shots, I posted the candidates earlier. DYODD and you might have a decent shot. Also dont panic about selling. Set TRAILING STOP SELL ORDERS, with wide margins. For the Initial phase of an acquisition I use 15% Trail per-centages, as I have been shaken free of lesser margins. Once inside a strongly trended INTERMEDIATE MOVE, I will consider moving to a 7% Stop. When the trend starts to lose steam and might die, I simply put in a 3% Stop and call it good. I realize the 3% Stop is a bit harsh and tight, but it catches some Blow-Off Moves.
Gold and Oil are resting here, but I still like them along with some of their candidates I will mention here later.

Good Luck,

DG,

Sunday, January 25, 2009

WHATS ALL THE FUSS ABOUT ?? These Guys ?




So GOLD is showing its Bling, and Crude is threatening a 50% rally. Oh yes I forgot, the US Dollar is rallying and the Stock Market is threatening a Serious Bear Market Rally.

The only thing I can take from this is that, as usual, In Extremus, the tide flowed out of assets and into cash in such measure as to leave treasures stranded high and dry for all to reach. Those wanting it will hold back fearing the ominious ultra low tide before a tsnumami, but the bold ones will get some treasure. Ultimately the crowd will go in and get its share, and just as invevitably, the tide will come back in, but probably not in the measure of a tsunami, not just yet.

I will not be telling the market what to do, but I will be observing the tide and setting my craft to rides its gyrations. Fashion your craft accordingly, tie your lashes carefully, make sure your craft is properly trimmed and balanced.

My job here is to help people stay on the correct side of the markets action.
This bear market rally aside, and any rise in commodities not withstanding, have you considered what you will do next >? Position planning, just like position in playing billards is part of a successful operators DD & HW ! ! !

DG

Hard to Buy Stocks + Old Favorites = crowd pleasers !








FHC is a thin stock. Face it, most of these stocks qualify for the Motley Fooll Test, Ignored, Unknown, and undervalued [ paraphrase ]. THEORETICALLY it should go lower, but getting it lower is another thing altogether. IMO, $3.75 is nice for FHC
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MAG Silver [ MVG ] playing mouse hockey with Fresnillio's UNDERBID Offer of $4.54. IT feels as if Fresnillo has had a STUPID ATTACK, worsened with a case of arrogance. I guess the only antidote is a falling silver price, from Fresnillo's point of view, but that is not in the cards now, IMO. If I was buying more, I'd be happy in the $5.00 - $5.50 range. So far this is the only Listed Silver Stock with decent market action. The majors, range from the slightly winged to the walking wounded, to the totally crippled. I am happy with my MVG in the $5.00 - $5.50 range./>/> Onward
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GORO - well accolades all around to these guys. The only thing they could do better is get the stock listed. Here I am trying to buy the stock around $3.00.
Good Luck to ME !! LOL. OK for real, if your an optimist, you could place a LIMIT BUY order in around $3.25-$3.50, and you might get some.
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ROGERS SUGAR TSX -RSI/Un.to, on Stockcharts, RSI.un on the exchange. RSGUF in US
Pink Sheets. Totally tight, together and boring. Also thinly traded. Just keeps adding a few cents a day in basic trading. Boring dividend. Loonie keeps hoping all over, and makes it hard to buy. Bids for RSGUF now might work in the U$D area of $ 3.25-3.50. I'd hate to see how hard this is to buy at these levels if the Loonie starts moving up. As basic as a food stock can get, RSGUF is part AG, part Commodity Stock, part Food stock, and oh yes pays the US annual equivalent of 9.5%, paid monthly. Totally boring !
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DHT Marine. Double Hulled Tankers, owned in part by OSG, but operating not as a subsidiary. Double Hulled Tankers and SuezMax vessels, all leased to guess who?
Its div yield makes it hard to buy, 19 % at these levels. I'd be trying for $6.00 or
so, maybe $6.25. Lots of people want this stock, so its a boomerang, but strong.

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So the quandary we find ourselves in is this : Do we use Momentum Tactics to get aboard strong stocks, or do we bottom fish right at support ? Well, you decide.
Me, I set some limit orders a little ways off the bottom, because when they hit support, they arent usually there very long or for very much volume, in the case of a strongly trended stock, so only a couple of lots change hands there. IMO, its better to be a couple notches higher and get the stock if the trend is strong. If you think the trend is weakening, then you can go lower with your order with more confidence. The numbers I threw out there in this post, are a bit higher than rock bottom support, and the kind of bid I have used to capture strongly trended stocks such as those listed. Whatever you do, DYODD & DYOHW.

Good Luck,

DG

Whither goest thou, Bear Market Rally ?




Well, What we DONT have here is a failure to communicate, ala "Cool Hand Luke".

After spending some time running a series of technical scans, I came up with 11

stocks [ I thought it was 20 but some Old Favorites showed up], that showed a few

characteristics that I thought you'd be interested in observing.

The first characteristic is a breakout,

The second is staying in breakout mode,

The third is being close to support,

The fourth is having upside room to run,

and the Fifth, is developing the momentum to make that run.

We will cover the old favorites seperately.

VAALCO ENERGY > EGY has options

TALISMAN ENERGY > TLM has options

KINROSS GOLD CORP > KGC has options & wts.

GERDAU AMERISTEEL > GNA has options

NORTH AMER. GALVANIZING > NGA

MINEFINDERS > MFN has options

OVERHILL FARMS > OFI

BLOUNT INC > BLT has options

HEWLETT-PACKARD-COMPAQ > HPQ has options

NAT'L SEMICONDUCTOR > NSM has options

ADAMS-MIDLAND-ARCHER > ADM has options


So this group includes ENERGY, GOLD, STEEL & METALS, CONSUMER, TECH & AG.

I did NOT analyze them by sectors, but if you go here http://stockcharts.com/
and put up the GALLERY CHART, scroll to the second chart from the bottom :
which appears at the TOP of this page. Please note the BOTTOM panel in this chart, which matches the stock in question against the S&P 500, which roughly speaking, plots the RELATIVE STRENGTH of the stock in question. Dont hesitate to plug in all or any of the symbols that interest you in the GALLERY chart [ or any other for that matter, that suits you ], and make your observations, thats part of your DYODD & DYOHW.
OUR accounts seldom buy market orders except under two conditions : The stock is a hard one to buy, and we see some price weakness > BINGO, we enter a market order.
The second is where we have a tailing stop in place that is HIT on the Brokers in-house computer, and sent to the trading floor as a MARKET SELL. Other than that,
we attempt to define the support levels, by observing the charts, and enter a LIMIT BUY ORDER at such and such a price OR LESS.
Part of your HOMEWORK is to attempt to define SUPPORT LEVELS and then find a likely level of the stock, somewhere around support WHERE YOU CAN ACQUIRE SOME if you think it prudent to do so.

Please think this thru carefully, do not act in haste, but once in motion, act decisively as IMO, this will be a Bear Market Rally, no matter how long or short.
Should I be wrong, you at least will be on the correct side of the action.

There, enjoy. The next post will cover some old favorites we have been buying and selling since the Oct/Nov Bottom for our INVESTMENT EDUCATION SIMULATION PORTFOLIO.

DG

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Which way ? ? ?



As of Thursday, the TRIANGLE WAS OPERATIVE. By Friday it had broken out. By 1 PM on Jan 23, it broke out to 8450, Cleanly thru the upper RED Line.It then closed inside the triangle @ 8385. Reason , experience and basic Techncial Analysis would expect, the price to dribble down OUTSIDE the triangle riding the RED Line downward until the upward move begins. that said, the bias is for the WLSH to break upward out of the triangle
NOW if you assess the POSITION and direction of the TREND and MOMENTUM >>INTERPRETING MACD as TREND, and WM%ofRANGE as MOMENTUM, we see that the WLSH has moved out of oversold area of the WMS%R, but has room to run. We interpret the MACD as TREND, and see that its trend is positive, its downward wiggle flattening and you can visualize HOW a "fishook" up turn could manifest. The most recent chart shows three peaks, and the third peak occurred about>>> 1 PM on Friday. What exactly happens on MONDAY may be a mystery, but I'd expect by the close of business, a wee bit better upside resolution. Its an expectation, not a projection. Whatever form a rally might take, isnt as important as looking at TREND, MOMENTUM and POSITION, and not being freaked out by the TALKING HEADS.

Whatever you can absorb about APPLYING Technical Analysis from the above STOCKCHARTS Graphics will serve you well if you learn to apply the lessons of TREND, MOMENTUM and POSITION.
Have a great day, whatever you are doing.

DG

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

ARE WE THERE YET ?



That question is on everyone's mind? Does the above chart address that question?

Time cycles said Monday, MLK Day was THE DAY, but the markets were closed. I theorized that Tuesday was THE Day, and others said that THE DAY could not come before FRIDAY. Well as the Granddad always said : "You pays your money and takes your choice !"

In this case do take your choice. Did the Talking Heads continue to scare you as to whether the DOW would break its low ?? Maybe maybe not. It did NOT break the Low of the week of Nov 17th. It did make a higher low today. Take your choice.
The $WLSH, the Wilshire 5000, made a much higher low and so did Tom Holt's Value Line Arithmetic which is UNWEIGHTED whereas the $WLSH is weighted. So the majority of smaller stocks are the ones leading us higher, probably cause they got so badly trashed in the last two years.

The DGS Letter is available at No-Charge, if you simply email us your E-Addy and Zip or Postal Code. Another Edition will go out in the next 24 hours. My two cents, says, yes WE ARE THERE NOW. Maybe we will need a Band-Aid or two, as we might get bumped or scratched btwn now and Friday, but most of my accounts are ALL-IN, at this time, as are my Associates, and perhaps readers of the DGS Letter.
Covered will be FOOD, AG, Precious Metals, Energy, Gold n Silver and some wrinkles on ETF's. I am not calling the dates or numbers but trying to stay on the right side of the Intermediate Trend.

In any case, Good Luck.

DG

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Cultural GAP ? Well Not Really but there is no MLK

Day in Canada, but markets in the states will be CLOSED previous to President Elect Obama's Inauguration.

But is that why we are having a General Stock Market Rally, or rather is it WHEN we are having the Rally. The Rally is NOT confined to the General Market. The HUI, XUA & GDX are in Rebound mode. NOTE the steady Rise in Crude, via WTIC, and even our weakest sister, Nat Gas has steadied. Not surprisingly the US Dollar is bobbling about as its Daily MACD tries to turn downward.

Silver is showing an even sharper upturn than gold, and since silver tends to lead both up and down, this is a seriously interesting development to me.

Interestingly enuf, the Breadth in this currently ending correction never broke down.
Rather Large Cap stocks, DOW components have started to deteriorate, whereas certain small caps have outpaced their larger brethren. Tracking the large caps participation in this coming rally will gauge the depth of the next move down.
Beware the IDES of MARCH ! ! !

The way its going, it might be a long way to the Tuesday OPEN, but the TSX will be open for your orders. Rsi/un.to, L.to, PVE/un.to, and a whole host of other dually listed issues are available on the TSX if your broker will go there for you.

I am not tapped out yet, but I am fully loaded, just looking to slip one or two more issues aboard before we shove off, and ride this wave.

If you'd care to receive a complimentary BTA [ Binary Technical Assessment][ an unhedged buy or sell assessment ] for educational purposes only, by return Email, simply email me the symbol with your return email address. Sorry no snail mail !,


To receive your No-Charge subscription to the DGS Letter, in exchange for contributing to our Marketing Research for our Consulting, Counseling and Educational, send us your Email Address, your Postal / Zip Code and how you found out about us, to "denaliguide2@yahoo.com"

In the DGS LETTER you will get the EXCLUSIVE VIRAL V1.1 Projection for HUI / XAU / GDX.

Meantime, Good Luck to All,

Saturday, January 17, 2009

With the DGS Letter doing projections, now

We can do a little exploring without muddying the waters too much.

First Things First: Date, Time, Price and Volume Cycles being what they are, it was interesting to see a Mini-Panic this week as the last breakdown before a RALLY.
Given the Fibonacci Cycles and the fact that Markets are closed on MLK Day in the States, Friday was a nice day to have bought. Obama will be inaugurated on the 20th, and TIMING CURVES such as shown on the DGS LETTER should be watched. Also the Linked TREND CHARTS here use the MACD's below the price chart as their TIMING CURVES. I could call a bottom but what would I be doing but telling the Market what it is going to do ? That seems to be putting the Cart before the HORSE, IMO. What I can say is that of the 20 Odd stocks that we follow, about 10 of them have moved into support ranges, and several have merely paused, and then marched on, leaving less than 10 to hit their Support targets. Some are late, some are early, but they are, IMO, bottoming.

Later today I will be putting out my DGS Letter Supplement, covering Issues we have ACQUIRED, Issues Disposed, and A section focusing on Canadian & Dually traded Issues. I have published the EXCLUSIVE VIRAL 1.1 Date Window, Direction and Momentum on the back page of the Jan 14 DGS Letter, which basically defines an easily seen window for $HUI [ HUI ] and hence GOLD Movement. Originally it was tagged to $XAU [ XAU ], but both of those and GDX / GDM are just as applicable.

To receive your subscription to the DGS Letter, in exchange for contributing to our Marketing Research for our Consulting, Counseling and Educational, send us your Email Address, your Postal / Zip Code and how you found out about us, to "denaliguide2@yahoo.com"

The Letter is all unhedged projections of Gold, Stock Market, US DOLLAR, Strategic Selections, Technical Targets, and Stocks on Radar.

DGS LETTER Itself is derived from our technical research and presented in SIMPLE SUMMARY form for your immediate consumption. Assistance in Technical Analysis & Financial Strategy is available thru our Education and Consulting Services, details at "denaliguide2@yahoo.com"

Stay Vigilant, Keep some dry powder, and monitor your MACD Momentum turns. You will find that the Momentum Turns defined by the MACD are a lot more reliable than some one dictating to the markets when and where they will turn.

DG

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

New DGS 1/14/09 Letter w/ EXCLUSIVE VIRAL 1.1

released. If you did not receive your No-Charge copy, and wish to receive the DGS Letter, please send an email to "denaliguide2@yahoo.com" with your email address and Zip or Postal Code for you copy.

Gold, Dollar, General Markets, PM's, Stocks on Radar, STRATEGIC SELECTIONS and TECHNICAL TARGETS are some of the areas covered in addition to the first ever, and Exclusive publication of VIRAL 1.1's projections for the $HUI.

Enjoy, request your copy today.

DG

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Jan 7 Weekly Trend Update letter

complimentary copies released, and sent to regular subscribers as of 11 PM EST.

Have a great day.

DG

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

GOLD, Market, Energy - UNHEDGED

Stock Market - Still to go up as it OVER-Extends the Bear Market Rally. I am looking for a FLAT Correction. IMO, its an OBAMA Inaug Rally.

Gold Market - CORRECTING NOW, take this correction as a gift. At some point, the gold and stock markets will diverge, gold up, stock market down, but for now they are in-step.

Energy - No way but up, with minor bobbles here and there, at least until the end of Jan.

UNHEDGED, no weasel words, direction, not targets. Get your positions, set your stops and enjoy life.

DG

Monday, January 5, 2009

Short, Sweet, Unhedged Redux, oui ?

Well it seemed like the previous UNHEDGED article was a hit.

Straight talk and one handed economists seem to be in short supply in this world.

Rather than try to "call" markets, I will trail them like an Athabascan Moose Hunter. Even their traditional enemies, the Inuit, will give them the accolade of being simply the best moose hunters in their universe.

Once a moose senses someone or something on its back trail [ following it ], that moose simply MUST know what it is, so it then ALWAYS doubles back on its trail until it determines the identity of its follower. Anciently, Northern Athabascan groups like the G'wtitchin of Interior Alaska, learned to use this trait to their advantage.
This allowed them to lay in wait, after doubling back on their OWN trail to catch the moose doubling back on HIS trail. Successful attempts of this nature often yielded probably over 1,000 pounds of usable nourishment and materials to the hunter.

The relation here is simply. You are always doing the short term tracking in order to stay on the backtrail of the markets to determine which way they are going, so that you can harvest profits.

So rather than do the old "white man" deal of trying to call where [ price ] and when [ time ], I find it more reliable to say "he went thatta way !" and stay on the right side of it. Indian trick taught me by a white man, his name is Richard K. Nelson, and he wrote "HUNTERS OF THE NORTHERN FOREST", one of the great reads around.

In my next post we will look for this markets backtrail, and then figure out which way to double back on our own trail so we will be down wind from where the market is going to turn.

Right now we are in the middle of a correction, so if your stops are in place, well youre in good shape.

DG

GUESTBOOK