Thursday, September 18, 2008

SWAN LAKE ? DEADMAN's LAKE, Alphabet Soup?


Well you know how that goes, until the STAR sings………..and now the goldbugs are singing, full of delight at the revenge that is being visited upon the markets and evil manipulators………. Or could this be a market fluctuation. Or is this SWAN LAKE ?

Beings that this particular market gyration left its prints, like bears breaking out of hibernation do in the early spring snows, on my charts between July 7th and July 21st, it is hard to put this down to “manipulation”. As to who the STAR is, in this case, and whether she is singing about BLACK SWANS, or what I learned at Deadman Lake, about 115 airmiles NW of Fairbanks via Floatplane one summer, will be elucidated here, sometime.

I think the author of this particular song, could be named AlphaBet Soup. BOJ, BOC, BOE, ECB, FED, US TREAS, are but a few of the players. Don’t forget the orchestra playing the “ROTHCHILD TANGO” in the background as we all file into this opera performance.

It is my opinion that about one calendar quarter has elapsed since the usual suspects named executed their “co-ordination” program, for if I remember right that is when the anomalies surrounding the Swiss Franc surfaced. That was a nice ride, the Spread on the Currency Pair USD vs. Swiss Franc, and GBP vs. Swiss Franc. Not unlike bull riding as seldom could one hang onto a short term position more than the requisite 8 seconds [ 8 hours in the currency markets or thereabouts ]. And indeed the waves did make the minutes seem like hours.

Apparently what we have here is a failure to communicate, in that we could all see the signs, and feel the change in the pattern of the ground swells. Not too different than how the WW I flyers flew “by the seat of their pants”. Intuitive. Except that we are numbed-out being overwhelmed by the TORRENTS of TEXT.

Nelderand does a nice job of illustrating how it works, but to shorten it, the Powers That Be are playing INFLATION < - > DEFLATION ping pong with the markets hoping to keep either one from getting a good grip until they have all the lifeboats filled. AS YOU REMEMBER, there were three times as many passengers on the TITANIC as Lifeboats, and really nothing for all those is steerage. Not that it mattered, as those destined to survive, DID.

That you have a lifeboat is not as important as being in a position of safety. Aboard a lifeboat, provisioned and orderly away from the carnage was the safest spot, and is now, IMO, and therefore, reaping some profits here and stepping back will be the safest method to follow. An UPDATE will follow to those signed up before the Close of Business with as I trim and balance myself for the next gyration, and you will have time enuf to decide if you choose to do likewise.

Till then, Happy Trails, DG