Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Were you dancing the "Rothchild Tango" to the

rattle of the M-60 machine guns today, as "they" decimated the market ?

Was this an "L" shaped ambush that caught all the unknowing in a withering cross-fire ??

I noticed how Joe mentioned that this was "textbook". I noticed how someone else

noted it was impossible to define or detect this situation because Technical Analysis

"couldnt work" under these circumstances. How true were either of these statements?

Anyone remember the "Hindenburg Omen" warnings this spring ? It really made me recall

the weeks preceding 911, when after going short the week ending 8/23/2001 on some

of the TA techniques in use by "S" [ a service I subscribed to back then, and

subsequently learned the basic's from which I evolved my indicators ], and then

I started to notice Insurance Companies, Oil Companies and Airlines behaving badly,

totally out of context with what "scripted" to be going on. Subsequent events

showed me exactly what was "wrong". Three thousand people dead, more casualties

than Pearl Harbor. Quite memorable, cause I remember everything about that day, and

the month thereafter. Today wasnt much different, except if you knew the tsunami

was coming, you were on high ground with enuf dry powder to get you through.

We had dry powder, and there were lots of fish stranded by this tsunami. Thats

why we had a stack of bushel baskets to fill. The week isnt over, but we still have

lots of bushel baskets left. The signs are all around you, the ultra low tides,

the sea birds, the fact that the crickets have gone silent, and the squirrels are

scolding the bear for all they are worth as they pad thru the forest towards their

next meal on unwary investor's bones.

The strongest groups gave NO ground today. The groups in neutral bouyancy last

week, turned up and began to swim upstream like salmon.

The real story is this is all laid out, by the technicals. Its dead reckoning at

its best - > the reason ? Because if you had a GPS they whom control it had

slowly been loosening the guidance parameters until they were off by a full

declination and degraded accuracy to + / - 10% instead of the usual 5 meteres.

Since we are in the middle of a magnetic storm in the Arctic, your compass turned

useless, spinning like a weathercock in gale. The only thing left was celestial

navigation, and if you were whited-out in a storm, only a good lead dog could get

you to safety. Trusting anyone but your team leader and yourself, Ended Badly.

The sad part ? It never had to be this way. Too many words, too much text,

too many gurus. Keep it Simple, Strong & Agile. "Agile, the HERD is NOT", but

you can be.

Sadly, I notice all the time, so many: " How far do you think it will go ?" "Where is the Bottom / Top ?" " When do you think the Top / Bottom will be ?".

From as best as I can tell, many feel uncomfortable unless someone agrees with them, and validates their reasoning.

Working on the premise that I am capable of logic, and understanding, I am very comfortable in my own research, in fact, so comfortable, that it makes some uncomfortable. I do like to know if someone more or less agrees with me, but has
arrived at that conclusion by a differnt methodology. The best I can do is go by
my TA and indicators. What I have found, is that if I can find the turning points, and be on the right side of that turn, then it makes it easier for me to pick the
next turn. I think the old proverb that I really like is : " A thing well bought,
is half sold.", meaning that if you enter right [ short or long ], then exiting profitably, [ short or long ] is much more likely.

If you will trust your intellect and intuition, and use them together, IMO, you wont have to be caught in the " L " shaped ambush.

Using some of the tools and techniques used in Rational TA, can turn days like this into a serious "READY ? SET ! GO ! ! ! " launch of you investment portfolio, where you can be Postive and GREEN on a week when the market tanks for 1000 points.

Whether it is the glacier-fed 2 Degree "C" Sheenjik River, bottom strewn with a hidden field of basketball sized and shaped boulders that threatens to turn and break your ankle 300 miles north of Fairbanks, and 50 miles from the closest human,
or a mother moose with ears laid back, nostrils flared and eyes red with rage, the right KNOWLEDGE is is the Right Stuff ! The wilderness of investments or the North
are equally dangerous without a guide, two or four legged. Our Summit Trend Alerts can be a trailhead, and a good start. The Summit Trend Letter is a trail guide and available through the website as are education, consulting, and instruction. We'll be glad to assist when you contact us.

Happy Trails, until we meet again,